536
FXUS62 KJAX 111758
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
158 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HAZARDOUS BEACH & SURF ZONE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS ALL LOCAL BEACHES - HIGH RISK. ROUGH SURF, BREAKERS
6-9 FT - HIGH SURF ADVISORY. COASTAL GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT
- MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING TODAY COAST, ICW & ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. EXTENDED DURATION OF TIDAL FLOODING FOR ST. JOHNS RIVER
NEXT WEEK. MINOR IMPACTS AT COAST & ICW SUNDAY
- GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT, SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY & MONDAY
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ABOUT 250
MILES ENE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WITH LOCAL WINDS BACKING
MORE NNW AND MAGNITUDES DECREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX A LITTLE. RECENT COASTAL GUSTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WERE IN THE 30-35 MPH TO 25-30 MPH INLAND TOWARD THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO FORM AND DRIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY
DECREASE SO SCALED BACK THE WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THE IMMEDIATE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM DUVAL TO FLAGLER COUNTY FOR GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH THROUGH 6 PM.
BLUE SKIES HAVE BROKEN OUT GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 WHERE
MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S, WHILE COASTAL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEACHES CHILLIER IN
THE UPPER 60S.
THE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL NNW WINDS WAS KEEPING COASTAL CONVERGENCE
AND RAIN POTENTIAL MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY FOR COASTAL NE
FL THROUGH 8 PM, THEN PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING WHERE WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
A MUCH COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW/MID
60S ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST, NEAR TO
JUST BELOW AVERAGE LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
SLOWLY FOLLOWING BEHIND. THIS COMBO MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THEY PULL AWAY, MAINLY FROM ABOUT WAYCROSS NORTH AND
EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE, DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL
IN AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. LESS CLOUD COVER
IN THE DRIER FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH. DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW 60S LIKELY INSIDE THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
THE COAST. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A
PSEUDO BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A FEW
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THOUGH
OVERALL, THE DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THESE CHANCES UNDER 10
PERCENT, WITH GENERALLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS - ESPECIALLY
INLAND. WITH EVEN MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT LOW 80S TO BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND SOME UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOW TO MID
60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AT THIS TIME, AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS REINFORCED AROUND
THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ANOTHER PSEUDO-SECONDARY BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SHIFTING
POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO RETURN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE
REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH THIS REGIME DOES NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS THE CURRENT EVENT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED AT COASTAL TERMINALS WITH GNV
BREAKING OUT AT TIMES FROM MVFR TO VFR. WINDS WERE PROGRESSIVELY
BACKING MORE NNW WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY NUDGING DOWNWARDS WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE MAINLY AT SGJ AND
SSI. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO NNW TO NW AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE SHOWING
SHOWER POTENTIAL NEAR SSI OVERNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT OTHER
TERMINALS WITH LOWERING STRATUS TO MVFR TO IFR INLAND THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS SSI.
AFTER 12Z, CLOUD BASES RISE THROUGH 18Z UNDER PREVAILING NW WINDS
WITH SPEEDS 9-13 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS
NORTHWARD. WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A RESURGENCE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS TRAILING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOCAL WATERS. DID EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS 7 FT
COMBINED SEAS LINGER.
RIP CURRENTS & SURF ZONE: HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES. HIGH SURF WITH BREAKERS OF
6-9 FT (7 FT THIS MORNING REPORTED AT GUANA TOLOMATO MATANZAS
NERR) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES.
SUNDAY, THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES WITH BREAKERS 6-8 FT UNDER NNW FLOW WHILE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES SEE MORE NW WIND COMPONENT AND LOWER BREAKER HEIGHTS OF
4-6 FT, JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN. THOUGH WATER LEVELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD
TODAY WITH GENERAL SUBSIDING OF THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, MANY
GAUGES REMAIN NEAR OR AT FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON, AND MANY
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MODERATE FLOODING ONCE AGAIN AROUND HIGH
TIDE.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING BECOMES A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER IN DUVAL
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY AS WATER LEVELS SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, OPTED TO CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM
ABOUT THE MAIN STREET BRIDGE IN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY
INTO FLAGLER COUNTY WHERE MORE WATER IS EXPECTED TO STAY TRAPPED
DUE TO THE MORE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 76 57 80 / 20 20 20 0
SSI 63 76 64 79 / 20 20 20 10
JAX 61 79 61 83 / 20 10 10 10
SGJ 63 78 65 80 / 20 0 10 10
GNV 60 81 60 85 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 61 81 60 83 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
325-633.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-225-233-333.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-
333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-225-233-333.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ125-138-233-333.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page