633
FXUS62 KJAX 120551
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HAZARDOUS BEACH & SURF ZONE CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY.
FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS ALL LOCAL BEACHES HIGH RISK. ROUGH SURF,
BREAKERS 6-9 FT HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT
- MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING TODAY: COAST, ICWW & ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. EXTENDED DURATION OF TIDAL FLOODING FOR ST. JOHNS RIVER
NEXT WEEK. MINOR IMPACTS AT COAST & ICWW SUNDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
NEAR TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY WANING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DUE SO
TODAY AS THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST. THOUGH WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ELEVATED TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD THIS MORNING AS WAKE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK
AROUND THE LOW WILL LEAD TO DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT LIGHT
DRIZZLE MAY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE JACKSONVILLE AREA AROUND SUNSET
AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT BY
INCOMING DRY AREA TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO PUSH INTO THE LOW 80S BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER, READING IN THE MID 70S, THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH INLAND LOWS FALLING TO THE MID/UPPER
50S AND LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALONG TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE SHORELINE AND FOR AREAS ALONG THE
ST JOHNS RIVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PREVALENT FOR MIDWEEK THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH INITIALLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE LEVELS BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
DRYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS, LEADING TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS WILL PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS
INTO KSSI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. DRIZZLE MAY REACH THE JAX METRO TERMINALS AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
LINGERING ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A BOUT OF BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS TRAILING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HYDROLOGY
WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE WILL TREND TIDAL LEVELS LOWER ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND WITHIN THE MOUTH OF THE ST JOHNS RIVE WITH HIGHER
HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON PEAKING AT MINOR FLOOD LEVELS (1.5-2.0
FEET MHHW). FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES, THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE
WILL BE THE LAST ELEVATED TIDE AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDES WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE BEACHES. THE ADVISORY FOR THE MOUTH OF
THE ST JOHNS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
TRAPPED TIDAL WATER SLOWLY DRAINS.
FOR THE MIDDLE/UPPER ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT HIGH TIDE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TRAPPED
TIDES SLOWLY DISCHARGE. THE MODERATE FLOOD IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY
FROM DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE (MAIN STREET BRIDGE) SOUTHWARD TO LAKE
GEORGE WHERE HIGH TIDES WILL REACH PEAK WATER LEVELS AROUND 2.0-2.5
FT MHHW. NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN MIDWEEK WHICH MAY PROLONG MINOR OR
ELEVATED TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 57 81 55 / 30 20 0 0
SSI 76 63 79 63 / 20 30 0 0
JAX 79 61 82 60 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 79 64 79 65 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 82 59 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 81 61 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
325-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-
333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ125-225.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GAZ154-
166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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