189
FXUS62 KJAX 121215
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
815 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HAZARDOUS BEACH & SURF ZONE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS ALL LOCAL BEACHES HIGH RISK. ROUGH SURF, BREAKERS
6-9 FT HIGH SURF ADVISORY
- MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY: ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN.EXTENDED DURATION OF TIDAL FLOODING FOR ST. JOHNS RIVER
NEXT WEEK. MINOR IMPACTS AT COAST & ICW
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
LESS WIND AND WARMER TODAY WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS WORKING
THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS GA WHERE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
HOMERVILLE TO WAYCROSS TO BRUNSWICK LINE. DRY CONDITIONS FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
SHIFTING TOWARD THE JAX METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WAKE
TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA WHERE MORE CLOUDS LINGER TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR WHERE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY WANING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DUE SO
TODAY AS THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST. THOUGH WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ELEVATED TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD THIS MORNING AS WAKE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK
AROUND THE LOW WILL LEAD TO DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT LIGHT
DRIZZLE MAY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE JACKSONVILLE AREA AROUND SUNSET
AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT BY
INCOMING DRY AREA TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO PUSH INTO THE LOW 80S BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER, READING IN THE MID 70S, THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH INLAND LOWS FALLING TO THE MID/UPPER
50S AND LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALONG TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE SHORELINE AND FOR AREAS ALONG THE
ST JOHNS RIVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PREVALENT FOR MIDWEEK THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH INITIALLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE LEVELS BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
INCREASING MID CLOUDS TOWARD SSI WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE NEAR THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER WNW WINDS WHICH
WILL INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS BY 14Z WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS THROUGH
14Z OF LOWER STRATUS, THEN PREVAILING MVFR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z.
PREVAILING VFR TODAY AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS AS WNW
DEVELOPS WITH SPEEDS 8-12 KTS AND GUSTS 18-22 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WNW
TOWARD 00Z WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS NEAR JAX, CRG AND VQQ
THROUGH 06Z.
MARINE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
LINGERING ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A BOUT OF BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS TRAILING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RIP CURRENT & HIGH SURF: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR ALL
LOCAL BEACHES TODAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE TRIMMED
SOUTHWARD TODAY AFTER MORNING BREAK HEIGHT REPORTS ARE RECEIVED.
HYDROLOGY
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS IN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN BETWEEN DOWNTOWN
JACKSONVILLE (MAIN STREET BRIDGE) SOUTHWARD TO LAKE GEORGE WHERE
HIGH TIDE INUNDATION WILL PEAK BETWEEN 2.0-2.5 FT MHHW WITH
TRAPPED TIDES. THE AMPLITUDE OF PEAK TIDES WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
OFFSHORE WNW FLOW WILL REDUCE THE TIDAL FLOODING THREAT TODAY WITH
PEAK INUNDATION STILL EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOODING LEVELS OF
1.5 TO 2 FT MHHW AROUND THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE (1 PM - 2 PM) FOR
THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
COAST TODAY. THE AREA OF EXCEPTION FOR THE COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING
WILL BE THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY, ESPECIALLY IN ST. JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE LOCALIZED MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH INUNDATION OF 2-2.3 FT MHHW - BUT NOT AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY'S PEAK TIDE FOR THIS EVENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN MIDWEEK WHICH MAY PROLONG MINOR OR
ELEVATED TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 57 81 55 / 30 20 0 0
SSI 76 63 79 63 / 20 30 0 0
JAX 79 61 82 60 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 79 64 79 65 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 82 59 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 81 61 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
325-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-
333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ125-225.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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