271
FXUS62 KJAX 122327
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
727 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HAZARDOUS BEACH & SURF ZONE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS ALL LOCAL BEACHES HIGH RISK. ROUGH SURF, BREAKERS
5-8 FT HIGH SURF ADVISORY
- MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY: ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
EXTENDED DURATION OF TIDAL FLOODING FOR ST. JOHNS RIVER NEXT
WEEK. MINOR IMPACTS AT COAST & ICWW
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS SPOKE OF MOISTURE AROUND THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ROTATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE GA AND
COASTAL NE FL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN CLEARING SKIES TOWARDS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
INLAND SE GA, UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND LOWER 60S ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 PREVAILED ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID AND LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS SE GA AHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WNW
LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS WITH PEAK
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES.
A FEW OFF AND ON RADAR RETURNS CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, BUT
THE DRY AIRMASS BELOW THE MID CLOUDS IS LIMITING RAINFALL REACHING
THE GROUND. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR SE GA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DOUGLAS TO ST. MARYS LINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND AN AXIS ACROSS
OUR FL ZONES WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 10%
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOW 60S TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, PERSISTING A DRY AND FAIR PATTERN OVERALL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRIER
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WILL BE DOMINANT ON BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE MONDAY BECOMING MORE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY AS A PSEUDO BACKDOOR TYPE OF FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CAVEAT TO THE FAIR
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE REGARDING CONTINUING COASTAL
FLOODING, AS A MODEST BREEZE FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL HELP
TO KEEP SOME WATER TRAPPED IN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN
ESPECIALLY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN FROM ABOUT THE MAIN STREET BRIDGE IN JAX
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY, WITH AN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CLOSER TO
THE MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS. AT LEAST ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL, EVEN WITH A LOWERING OF EXPECTED TIDES.
REGARDING TEMPS: PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS WIDESPREAD IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
DURING EACH NIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 60S BY THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MAINLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH DOMINATES. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (AS COMPARED
TO NORTHWEST OF THE REGION) BEFORE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL START TO DRIFT MORE SOUTH
AND EASTWARD TOWARDS/ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS TO REINFORCE THE DRY, SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY USHERING IN SOME OF THE
LOWEST DEW POINTS/LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR.
TEMPS TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR NE FL TERMINALS, WHILE BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE SSI TERMINAL THIS EVENING WITH
SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AS THE SPOKE OF MOISTURE AROUND UPPER LOW
PUSHES THROUGH, MAINLY IN THE 01-05Z TIME FRAME. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINLY
BELOW 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO END NEARSHORE WATERS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY 8
PM THIS EVENING. THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS.
OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AND MONDAY WITH ELEVATED COMBINED
SEAS CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR
ALL LOCAL BEACHES. A HIGH RISK MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY FOR NORTHEAST
FL BEACHES BUT A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES. BREAKER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AT LOCAL BEACHES
WITH 3-6 FT EXPECTED TUESDAY, BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS IN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN BETWEEN DOWNTOWN
JACKSONVILLE (MAIN STREET BRIDGE) SOUTHWARD TO LAKE GEORGE WHERE
HIGH TIDE INUNDATION WILL PEAK BETWEEN 2.0-2.5 FT MHHW WITH
TRAPPED TIDES. THE AMPLITUDE OF PEAK TIDES WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
OFFSHORE WNW FLOW WILL REDUCE THE TIDAL FLOODING THREAT TODAY WITH
PEAK INUNDATION STILL EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOODING LEVELS OF
1.5 TO 2 FT MHHW AROUND THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE (1 PM - 2 PM) FOR
THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE COAST
TODAY. THE AREA OF EXCEPTION FOR THE COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING WILL
BE THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY, ESPECIALLY IN ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES WHERE LOCALIZED MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
INUNDATION OF 2-2.3 FT MHHW - BUT NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY'S PEAK
TIDE FOR THIS EVENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN MIDWEEK WHICH MAY PROLONG MINOR OR ELEVATED
TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 56 83 56 83 / 30 0 0 0
SSI 61 79 63 80 / 30 10 0 0
JAX 59 83 60 83 / 20 10 0 0
SGJ 62 81 65 81 / 20 10 0 0
GNV 58 85 59 85 / 10 10 0 0
OCF 58 85 60 84 / 10 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
325-633.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
138-233-333.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ125-225.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ138-233-333.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450-452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page