097
FXUS62 KJAX 130552
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
152 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HAZARDOUS BEACH & SURF ZONE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS ALL LOCAL BEACHES HIGH RISK. ROUGH SURF WITH
BREAKERS 4-6 FT
- MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY: ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
EXTENDED DURATION OF TIDAL FLOODING FOR ST. JOHNS RIVER NEXT
WEEK. MINOR IMPACTS AT COAST & ICWW
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUTER WATERS
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND COOLER AUTUMN
TEMPERATURES AS THE DRY NORTHERLY PREVAILING FLOW SETTLES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH UP INTO THE MID
80S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTLINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF DRY FRONTS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH,
BRINGING A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH A SECOND FRONT RIGHT BEHIND IT AND SLIDING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROLONG ONGOING TRAPPED TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN
THE ST JOHNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. DRY,
MOSTLY SUNNY, AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD WITH COOL MORNINGS IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND
MID 60S AT THE COAST AND HIGHS PUSHING TO THE LOW/MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TO END THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND THEN OFF THE COAST AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COMFORTABLE, NEAR-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BENEATH A FLATTENING RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY
A ZONE MID LEVEL FLOW. SOME WARMING IS LIKELY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. THIS SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE WINDS SHOULD AID IN
DISCHARGING THE TRAPPED TIDES LINGERING WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW AND WHEN THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA. THE SCENARIOS BEING
CONSIDERED ARE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH PUSHING A SLOWER FRONT (NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY NEXT) WEEK AND POTENTIALLY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
AREA AND A WEAKER AMPLIFICATION LEADING TO A WEAKER DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LIGHT DRIZZLE CLEARING FROM SSI BY 06-07Z. OTHERWISE CLEARING
SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TODAY WITH ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS
CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES
AND EXPECTED TO DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 80 64 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 80 64 81 67 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 85 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 83 60 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
325-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ125-138-225-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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