691
FXUS62 KJAX 132334
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
734 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES THIS WEEK. HIGHEST IMPACTS: ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF DUVAL COUNTY. INCREASING WATER LEVELS AGAIN
MID-WEEK
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RETURNS WEDNESDAY OUTER WATERS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING TONIGHT OVER
INLAND AREAS WILL LED TO FOG FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE, LOWEST VSBYS EXPECTED
ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND ALONG THE I-10 AND US 301 CORRIDORS ACROSS
INLAND NE FL AND A SMALL SCALE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
GORGEOUS, SEASONABLY WARM FALL-DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UNDER
SUNNY SKIES AND NNW TO NNE WINDS TOWARD THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER 80S TO NEAR 80/UPPER
70S AT THE COAST AS NNE WINDS KICK-IN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NNW OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WINDS DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, INLAND FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. LEANED ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF NBM LOW TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW
60S AT THE COAST, GENERALLY NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT
CLIMATE SITES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE LOWER PLAINS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION. A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION FOR MID-WEEK MAINTAINING THE DRY AIRMASS (PWATS ~1
INCH) OVER THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP FOR MID-
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEDGES DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND THEN
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE UPCOMING FRONT ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND. COOL
MORNINGS CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FOR INLAND SE GA TO
THE MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING, THEN BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING TONIGHT WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS WITH IFR TEMPO LIFR CONDS EXPECTED AT VQQ IN THE 07-14Z
TIME FRAME AND MVFR TEMPO IFR CONDS EXPECTED AT GNV/JAX IN THE
08-13Z TIME FRAME, WITH LOWEST VSBYS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 14Z ONWARD WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS AND SCT CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEAS
CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE. CURRENTLY HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINED FOR THE OUTER WATERS, AND EXPECT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
6 FT BY 10 PM THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK CONTINUES FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES TODAY,
WITH A BRIEF MODERATE RISK EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY RETURNS HIGH RISK TO MOST BEACHES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
MORNING TIDES PEAKED IN THE "MINOR" CATEGORY IN THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF THE BUCKMAN BRIDGE (DUVAL-CLAY COUNTY LINE)
SOUTHWARD TO SATSUMA, WITH COASTAL HIGH TIDES IN THE ACTION TO
MINOR CATEGORIES SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
PUTNAM COUNTY EM TEAM STATING THAT MINOR ROAD FLOODING IMPACTS
WERE NOW OCCURRING IN WELAKA (SPORTSMAN HARBOR), WE DROPPED THE
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY,
AND TRIMMED DOWN THE ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST TO JUST SOUTHERN ST.
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES FOR MAINLY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IMPACTS TO THE ICW.
LOOKING AHEAD, LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF LOWER-END MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MID TO LATE WEEK
AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN. THE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
THE UPCOMING NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EVENT COMPARED TO LAST WEEK ARE
SIGNIFICANT AND NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT. THESE DIFFERENCES INCLUDE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW, DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITHIN THE
ST. JOHNS BASIN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT LAST MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF INUNDATION NEAR
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS (NEAR 2 FT MHHW) SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN
JAX LATE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 85 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 63 80 65 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 59 84 62 80 / 0 10 0 0
SGJ 62 81 67 78 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 57 86 60 83 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 58 85 61 82 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-138-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...NONE.
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