279
FXUS62 KJAX 140536
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
136 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE INLAND FOG THIS MORNING AROUND SUNRISE
- TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES THIS WEEK. HIGHEST IMPACTS: ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF DUVAL COUNTY. INCREASING WATER LEVELS AGAIN
MID-WEEK
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
- HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RETURNS WEDNESDAY OUTER WATERS
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS WILL DISPERSE BY MID MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND COOLER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS THE DRY NORTHERLY PREVAILING FLOW SETTLES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH UP INTO THE
MID 80S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COASTLINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
MID 50S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR COUNTIES
ALONG THE THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
DRY POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WHILE STEERING STRATOCUMULUS INLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES THAT BRUSH THE COASTAL AREAS OF NE FL, MAINLY SOUTH OF
ST AUGUSTINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING
DRY FRONT WILL KEEP COASTAL CONDITIONS BREEZY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE.
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD WITH COOL MORNINGS IN THE MID 50S INLAND
AND MID 60S AT THE COAST AND HIGHS PUSHING TO THE LOW/MID 80S.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE LOWER AT THE COAST DUE TO THE COOLER
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TO END THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COMFORTABLE, NEAR-CLIMO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BENEATH A FLATTENING RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY A ZONE MID
LEVEL FLOW. SOME WARMING IS LIKELY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AS
FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE
GULF.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW AND
WHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA. THE SCENARIOS
BEING CONSIDERED ARE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON A DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING
A TONGUE OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CHANCES
FOR RAIN HAS INCREASED SOME BUT, DUE TO THE LOSS OF UPPER DYNAMICS
AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE TO OVERCOME THE LINGERING DRY AIR
ALOFT, POP IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE (<30%). CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS, DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR
LEVELS FOR INLAND AIRFIELDS, WILL BECOME DISPERSED BY AROUND 14Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BUILD FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY AROUND 18Z
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING UP TO ABOUT 8-11 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING MORE MILD AND VARIABLE FOR INLAND SITES BETWEEN 23Z AND
01Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR AREA BEACHES TODAY WITH AN
EXPECTED RETURN TO HIGH RISK FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 80 65 77 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 85 62 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 80 67 79 66 / 0 0 10 0
GNV 86 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 85 62 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-138-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...NONE.
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