814
FXUS62 KJAX 160453
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1253 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SE GA THROUGH TONIGHT, NE FL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES THIS WEEK. MAIN IMPACT AREA: ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF DUVAL COUNTY, AND COASTAL ST JOHNS
AND COASTAL FLAGLER COUNTIES
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD, FROM A HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF LOCAL AREA. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH, LEADING TO ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES, AND BELOW TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE INLAND WATER WAYS AND SWAMPY AREAS ADD TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, FROM A
CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST, WHICH WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS PATTERN,
THE COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT COASTAL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS A
LITTLE BELOW ON SATURDAY. RIDGING KEEPS THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY, ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IF THIS WEEKENDS FRONT DOES NOT PRODUCE RAIN, THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE WILL COME WITH ANOTHER FRONT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AREA. SO, AT THIS POINT
LEAVING CHANCES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS TRENDING CALM INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT INLAND AIRFIELDS SUCH AS KVQQ AND
KGNV. TODAY, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STEER SOME LOWER, FLAT CUMULUS
ONSHORE BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED. BREEZES ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SKC CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WINDS TREND LIGHT TO CALM ONCE AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AND STALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BEFORE LIFTING BACK
TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA - HIGH RISK THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN MODERATE.
NE FL - HIGH RISK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 54 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 77 64 76 63 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 82 61 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 79 67 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 85 60 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 84 61 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ038-
132-137-138-325-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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