770
FXUS62 KJAX 170203
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1003 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON FRIDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT
AREA: ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN FROM DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE
SOUTHWARD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1023
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH THIS
FEATURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. ALOFT...A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE, FEATURING DEEP
TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND, RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
THAT WAS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA, AND
TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WAS BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS PERSISTS ACROSS OUR
AREA, WITH PWATS GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH, WHILE AN EVEN DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS CONTAINED A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE,
WITH THIS CLOUD COVER MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS THE FLAGLER AND
SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY COASTLINES. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED
ELSEWHERE, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 02Z SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 60S
AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WAS KEEPING
COASTAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 70. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE LOW AND
MID 60S FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A TIGHT ENOUGH LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PREVENT ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS
ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT, BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS, WHILE AN ONSHORE
BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR NORTHEAST
FL.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF ABOUT 1018-1022 MB WILL BE OVER VA
AND NC ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALOFT,
A PROMINENT MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH,
OUR LOCAL WIND FIELD WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WITH PWATS
OF BELOW 1 INCH (ABOUT THE 20TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY)
TO CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, WITH PLEASANT HIGHS NEAR
AVERAGE WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
AND CHILLY FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND,
BUT LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. OUR FORECAST LOWS NOT AS COLD SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE VEERING/WARM ADVECTION FLOW AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH
A MEAN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT ON
MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND THIS ONE
WILL BE EVEN DRIER AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED.
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN OVER THE AREA AGAIN WED-THU.
PRETTY DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH PWATS
AGAIN AT ONLY THE 25TH PERCENTILE. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED NBM GUIDANCE
DEWPOINTS MON- TUE DUE TO ABNORMAL DRY AIR.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WE COULD NEAR THE RECORD
HIGH AT GAINESVILLE ON TUESDAY WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST FL. WITH A DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z FRIDAY. MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT VQQ TOWARDS 06Z AND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE GNV, JAX AND CRG TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE PREVAILING
OR TEMPO CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AT SGJ, WHILE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH
TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AT SGJ TOWARDS NOON, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 14Z ELSEWHERE, WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
18Z FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY, CREATING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 5-7 FEET OFFSHORE WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WHILE CAUTION CONDITIONS, FEATURING SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET PREVAIL FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO
NORTHEAST FL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS IT
CROSSES OUR AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
A DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALLOWING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE, TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY TRANSPORT
SPEEDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS TO CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, WITH LOWER
MIXING HEIGHTS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS YIELDING FAIR VALUES.
MARGINALLY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
OCALA NATIONAL FOREST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN FAIR
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10,
WHILE GOOD VALUES CONTINUE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH BREEZY
TRANSPORT SPEEDS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA YIELDING MARGINALLY
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY
WILL CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH FAIR VALUES FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WITHIN THE
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN FROM DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
PERSISTENT, BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LIKELY RAISING WATER LEVELS
TO AROUND MINOR FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF DOWNTOWN
JACKSONVILLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. WATER LEVELS MAY CONTINUE TO
APPROACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD, BUT THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THESE WATER LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO BE DISCONTINUED FOR
THESE LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 60 75 63 76 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 59 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 66 78 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 59 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 61 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-138-325-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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