114
FXUS62 KJAX 171741
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
141 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
HIGH RISK NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ST. JOHNS BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAIN IMPACT AREA: DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH ONLY SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS UNDER BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH FROM ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND EXTEND
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS WILL FURTHER
DECREASE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA, GOING CALM INLAND THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WNW TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY INLAND FOG FORMATION, SIMILAR TO
WHAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEAR THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING TO
THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, FEATURING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND A MORE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5-10 MPH. THE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PERSIST A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES,
WITH NORTHEAST FL BEACHES HAVING THE MOST ELEVATED RISK. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY START TO BLEED IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S, EXCEPT SOME MID 60S BY THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING, RATHER
QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DIURNAL, WHICH WILL HELP BUMP UP BOTH
INSTABILITY AND LAYER MOISTURE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A LIKELY BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND GA. THIS SAME AREA WILL TAP
INTO THE BEST DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS SOME UPPER
DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GA.
THAT BEING SAID, STILL LOOKING AT CAPE VALUES UNDER 1000J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS, AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORM THREAT AT THIS TIME. THOUGH WITH SOME
LINGERING POCKETS OF DRIER AIR ALOFT, CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MID 80S EXPECTED AND SOME SPOTS
MAKING A PUSH TOWARDS 90 QUITE POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS OCCURS. A MODEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE COOL AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER
50S OVER INLAND GA AND THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S SOUTH AND EAST OF ABOUT I-10 AND AT THE COASTS/ST. JOHNS
RIVER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
RATHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT AT THIS TIME, WITH ONLY
ABOUT A 5-10 % CHANCE OF RAINFALL DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO USHER IN LIKELY THE DRIEST
AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS MONDAY WILL JUMP UP TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE REINFORCING FRONT BEFORE FALLING BACK
CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH 22Z WITH CLOUD BASES 4-5 KFT
AGL. AFTER 00Z, WINDS GO CALM INLAND WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS AT
THE COAST 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WITH MVFR BR AT VQQ AFTER
07Z-13Z. AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY, EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND PASSING HIGH CIRRUS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED
AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
COMBINED SEAS OF NEAR 6 FT AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH MONDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS GEORGIA INTO TUESDAY WITH
A RETURN OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TUESDAY, BUT BELOW LOCAL
MARINE HEADLINE CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK CONTINUES FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES TODAY,
WITH A HIGH RISK EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY INCLUDED DROPPING COASTAL ST. JOHNS COUNTY SOUTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE. THE PRODUCT WAS ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH THE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE FOR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN JAX
AND THE ICW OF FLAGLER COUNTY. MINOR INUNDATION OF 1.5-2 FT MHHW
WILL CONTINUE, WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN WATER LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 51 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 30
SSI 61 78 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 56 82 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 62 79 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 50 84 59 88 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 57 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
138-325-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...NONE.
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