640
FXUS62 KJAX 180159
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
959 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND FOR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN. MAIN
IMPACT AREA: DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
(1017 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE,
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...RIDGING POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE
FL PENINSULA WAS FLATTENING IN RESPONSE TO A MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS TRAVERSING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES, WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LATEST
GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD OUR AREA, WHICH IS
CONFIRMED BY THE EVENING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE, WHICH ONLY
REGISTERED ABOUT 0.5 INCHES OF PWAT. OTHERWISE, ONLY A FEW THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE MIGRATING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GA, WITH MARINE STRATOCUMULUS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FL
ATLANTIC WATERS. FAIR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WERE ALLOWING
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE QUICKLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AS OF 02Z. AN
ONSHORE BREEZE WAS KEEPING COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR REGION,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA FALLING TO THE UPPER
40S.
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY APPROACH COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM
ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FAIR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL THROUGH THE
50S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE A DIMINISHING ONSHORE BREEZE
KEEPS COASTAL LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEAR THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING TO
THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, FEATURING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND A MORE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5-10 MPH. THE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PERSIST A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES,
WITH NORTHEAST FL BEACHES HAVING THE MOST ELEVATED RISK. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY START TO BLEED IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S, EXCEPT SOME MID 60S BY THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING, RATHER
QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DIURNAL, WHICH WILL HELP BUMP UP BOTH
INSTABILITY AND LAYER MOISTURE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A LIKELY BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND GA. THIS SAME AREA WILL TAP
INTO THE BEST DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS SOME UPPER
DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GA.
THAT BEING SAID, STILL LOOKING AT CAPE VALUES UNDER 1000J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS, AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORM THREAT AT THIS TIME. THOUGH WITH SOME
LINGERING POCKETS OF DRIER AIR ALOFT, CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MID 80S EXPECTED AND SOME SPOTS
MAKING A PUSH TOWARDS 90 QUITE POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS OCCURS. A MODEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE COOL AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER
50S OVER INLAND GA AND THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S SOUTH AND EAST OF ABOUT I-10 AND AT THE COASTS/ST. JOHNS
RIVER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
RATHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT AT THIS TIME, WITH ONLY
ABOUT A 5-10 % CHANCE OF RAINFALL DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO USHER IN LIKELY THE DRIEST
AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS MONDAY WILL JUMP UP TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE REINFORCING FRONT BEFORE FALLING BACK
CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 05Z. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT VQQ, WITH
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INDICATE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY 13Z. MARINE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SGJ TERMINAL ON SATURDAY MORNING, BUT VFR CEILINGS
ABOVE 3,000 FEET ARE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND NOON AT THIS TIME.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT SGJ, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO
EASTERLY AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 06Z. EAST OR
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS ELSEWHERE
WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 04Z. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SGJ BY 15Z AND 5-10 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE TONIGHT,
WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL. SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL REMAIN
IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BRINGING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION
LEVELS OF 15-20 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY CROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE AT MOST
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHTER EASTERLY SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS YIELDING GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHILE
FAIR VALUES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED
MIXING HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301 TO
CREATE MARGINALLY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, WITH GOOD VALUES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY ON MONDAY MORNING AND NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
POOR TO FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE
TO DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE UPCOMING NEW MOON WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS ELEVATED WITHIN THE
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCATIONS
FROM DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD CONTINUING TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY HAVE REMAINED BELOW
MINOR FLOOD IN COASTAL FLAGLER COUNTY, AND THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE DISCONTINUED FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 52 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 30
SSI 62 78 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 54 82 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 63 79 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 56 84 59 88 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 56 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
138-325-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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