086
FXUS62 KJAX 181112
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
712 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND FOR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN. MAIN IMPACT AREA: DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD
- ISOLATED T'STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL NE FL/SE GA REGION WILL PULL
AWAY TOWARDS THE NE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STEERING FLOW BECOMING
SE TODAY AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WARM-UP
IN TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE 80S
OVER INLAND AREAS, LOWER 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 80
AT ATLANTIC BEACHES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS AS DRY SOILS CONTINUE TO ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AND THE ONLY
IMPACTS WILL BE PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TODAY
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANGE IN THE QUIET PATTERN OF LATE AS AN
UPSTREAM NEUTRALLY TILTED TROUGH ALONG THE MID MS VALLEY SWINGS
EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY SUNDAY EVENING, BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH MOST OF IT'S
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, A TRAIL OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EAST
THROUGH GA AND NORTHERN FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND BECOMING MORE ISOLATED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONVERGENCE ALONG AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT DECREASES. SOUTHWEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
PUMP IN HIGHER MOISTURE BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR T'STORMS, THOUGH INLAND
ISOLATED T'STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS BROKEN SHOWERS TRAVERSE ACROSS
US441/I-75 CORRIDORS. THE SWIFTNESS OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL
LIMIT OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH COULD OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA AND NE FL (SUWANNEE
VALLEY). SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID
80S SOUTH OF US 82 WITH MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH OF I-10 WHILE LOW
80S WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA.
SUNDAY NIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SE GA COAST INTO
NE FL WILL FIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S DUE TO AN EARLIER START BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE GA/SC COAST. NORTHERLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD WITH AN ATLANTIC SEABREEZE TURNING WINDS EASTERLY
WINDS UNDER THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE COAST JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH OF I-10 AND ONTO THE COAST WITH
LOW 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
MONDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL
EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE SE GA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S NW OF ALMA AND LOW 50S OVER MOST
OF INLAND SE GA/SUWANNEE VALLEY RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
TUESDAY, THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY, BUT THERE WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY SHOWER COVERAGE WITH A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
STATES IN THE WAKE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES THAT WILL PERSIST OVER NEW ENGLAND/QUEBEC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE DRY, SUBSIDENT WNW FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MID SOUTH REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY WILL BRING THE
DRIEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO OUR AREA, LIKELY DROPPING PWATS BELOW
THE 25TH PERCENTILE INLAND (0.50 INCHES). HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTH NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AND TURN WINDS NORTHEASTERLY, BECOMING BREEZY AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLOWLY FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
NORMAL INLAND TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN FALL 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL AT THE
COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AND ONLY SOME DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CU. MAIN CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR MORE COASTAL AIRFIELDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TODAY, ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
SUNDAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY CROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND MIDWEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
AS LONGER PERIOD SWELLS PUSH INTO THE SURF ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN
A HIGH RISK OF RIPS AT NE FL BEACHES WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-5 FT,
WHILE A MODERATE RISK OF RIPS IS EXPECTED AT SE GA BEACHES WITH
SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MINOR TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, MAINLY SOUTH OF JAX, THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK WATER LEVELS IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 FT MHHW RANGE
AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL HELP TO RELEASE SOME OF THE TRAPPED WATER
IN THE ST. JOHNS AND HEADLINES MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 57 81 52 / 0 0 40 10
SSI 78 64 82 60 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 82 61 85 61 / 0 0 20 20
SGJ 80 63 85 66 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 84 59 86 62 / 10 0 20 20
OCF 84 60 85 65 / 0 0 20 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
138-325-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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