354
FXUS62 KJAX 181724
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
124 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND FOR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN. MAIN
IMPACT AREA: DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD
- ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
FLOW IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THIS
OCCURS, WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY, WITH LOW 80S AND A FEW SPOTS IN THE MID 80S COMMON INLAND,
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL BE MORE COMMON THE FURTHER EAST
YOU GO WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, BUT OTHERWISE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE
THAN CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND. CLOUD COVER MOSTLY DWINDLES TONIGHT,
WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING THANKS TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING UPPER 50S TO BE MOST COMMON
INLAND, AND LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST.
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST, THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY FROM OUT OF THE WEST, AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONDITIONS SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE MILD AND VARIABLE BY MONDAY WITH
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE WINDS EXTENDING INLAND TO THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON
SUNDAY DOWN INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER & MID
60S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
A SECOND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDWEEK, ENSURING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WILL DROP DOWN TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN FAIR WEATHER CU AND WINDS AROUND 8-12 KNOTS.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT VQQ WHERE SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST. A COOL FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION
LATER ON SUNDAY, THOUGH ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA WATERS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AND EASTWARD
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK, DRY COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MINOR TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, MAINLY SOUTH OF JAX, THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK WATER LEVELS IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 FT MHHW RANGE
AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL HELP TO RELEASE SOME OF THE TRAPPED WATER
IN THE ST. JOHNS AND HEADLINES MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 81 51 75 / 0 50 10 0
SSI 65 81 60 73 / 0 20 20 0
JAX 60 86 60 77 / 0 30 20 0
SGJ 64 85 66 77 / 10 20 20 0
GNV 57 86 62 82 / 0 30 20 0
OCF 61 86 65 82 / 0 30 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
138-325-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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