307
FXUS62 KJAX 190447
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1247 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND FOR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN. MAIN
IMPACT AREA: DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND RAINFALL/STORM CHANCES DEFINITELY
HIGHER ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NORTH
FL THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LINGERING RAINFALL CHANCES REACH THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS, BUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF NE FL AND INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
WITH SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE
CLEARING SKIES AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS SE GA AND LOWER 60S ACROSS NE FL BY
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US BEHIND IT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOCAL COAST. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL MONDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST
DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW, AS COASTAL WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE A DRY
NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ONSHORE NEAR THE
FL COAST. WITH THIS ONSHORE FLOW ALONG FL COAST, AND A COOL OVER
LAND FLOW INLAND, A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER INTERIOR SE GA, TO THE MIDDLE
60S ALONG THE NE FL COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CENTER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY, AS
A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DRY DAY IS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST INLAND, AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL LIMIT READINGS NEAR THE COAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER AREA, SO KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF FORECAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD, DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHEAST FLOW, BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
OFF THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL READINGS. TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AT
VQQ BEFORE SUNRISE. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12G15-18 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME, TSRA CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CIGS LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
00-06Z TIME FRAME, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS AT
THIS TIME AS WINDS BECOME NW AND REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 KNOTS OR SO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN
TO CAUTION LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY CROSS
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AS LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS PUSH INTO THE SURF ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF
RIPS AT NE FL BEACHES WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-5 FT, WHILE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIPS IS EXPECTED AT SE GA BEACHES WITH
SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NE
FL/SE GA BEACHES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MINOR TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AROUND TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, MAINLY SOUTH OF JAX,
WITH PEAK WATER LEVELS IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 FT MHHW RANGE AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHIFT TO OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP TO DRAIN ENOUGH OF
THE TRAPPED TIDES FROM THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN TO ALLOW THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE BY THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 50 76 48 / 60 20 0 0
SSI 81 59 73 61 / 30 30 0 0
JAX 87 59 76 58 / 50 20 0 0
SGJ 86 64 77 65 / 40 30 0 0
GNV 87 61 81 59 / 50 30 0 0
OCF 87 64 81 63 / 50 30 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ038-
132-137-138-325-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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