170
FXUS62 KJAX 191756
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
156 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TODAY FOR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN. MAIN IMPACT
AREA: SOUTH OF DUVAL COUNTY
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
AND THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. A DISORGANIZED/BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGRESSING INTO THE
AREA, BUT ONLY INTO RATHER MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST THANKS TO
A DRIER AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED EMBEDDED T'STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR T'STORMS BEING GENERALLY NEAR THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY/I-75 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE CHANCES DROP
OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST FL OVERNIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A SECONDARY NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY ALSO BRING SOME BREEZIER GUSTS OF UP TO 20-30
MPH WITH IT. OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING PRIMARILY OVER INTERIOR NORTHEAST FL FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER AIR ALSO
PROGRESSIVELY FILLS IN.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE LIKELY PEAKED ACROSS
INTERIOR GA IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH LOW TO MID 80S LIKELY
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AND A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S
LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-10 LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LOW TEMPS WILL FEATURE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT TONIGHT DUE TO
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION: LOW TO MID 50S WILL BE EXPECTED NORTH,
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S CENTRAL, AND MID TO UPPER 60S FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST AND COASTAL FL.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS SETTLE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER ON
TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MILD AND VARIABLE INTO
TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL SEA BREEZE WINDS EXTENDING INLAND TO THE ST
JOHNS RIVER ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM
OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON MONDAY INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A SECOND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDWEEK, ENSURING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TRENDING JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A WEAKENING TREND WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN AREAS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER RAIN EXPECTED
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
TSRA AND PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE AT GNV, THE FORMER OF
WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. STAY TUNED
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADDITIONS OF TEMPO GROUPS.
SOME LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL BE LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING MAINLY AT INTERIOR AIRFIELDS POST RAINFALL, THOUGH
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO
IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH VFR ARE EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL
WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION
LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN SHIFTING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY CROSS OUR AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MINOR TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, MAINLY
SOUTH OF JAX, WITH PEAK WATER LEVELS AROUND 1.5 FT MHHW RANGE AND
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. THE SHIFT TO OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP
TO DRAIN ENOUGH OF THE TRAPPED TIDES FROM THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN TO ALLOW THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR ALL EITHER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 50 75 47 82 / 30 0 0 0
SSI 59 72 61 79 / 20 0 0 0
JAX 60 77 59 84 / 20 0 0 0
SGJ 66 77 66 82 / 20 10 0 0
GNV 62 80 60 86 / 20 10 0 0
OCF 65 82 64 86 / 20 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-
138-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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