470
FXUS62 KJAX 201148
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
748 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT & EARLY TUES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT GNV THROUGH AROUND 13Z, WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS AT SGJ LIKELY LIFT TO VFR BEFORE 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z
TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT GNV AND VQQ, WITH THIS FOG
POTENTIALLY SPREADING TO SGJ, CRG AND JAX TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AT VQQ AND GNV, WHILE CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INDICATE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT SGJ, CRG, AND JAX AT THIS
TIME. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 14Z, WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY 17Z. SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 20Z, FOLLOWED BY SPEEDS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS BY 05Z TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT SGJ DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT SGJ.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
FOG, OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING BREEZY AT 15G25 MPH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES WITH HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S, WITH LESSER NE WINDS OVER INLAND AREAS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
INLAND NE FL. PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH, AS
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND
MID/UPPER 50-S ACROSS INLAND NE FL, WHILE THE LINGERING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TUESDAY, AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE, THAT THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DRY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S OVER INTERIOR SE GA, TO THE MID 60S ALONG COASTAL NE FL.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WITH HIGHER
READINGS OVER NE FL.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COOLING
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. THE
FLOW ALONG THE NE FL COAST WILL LARGELY BE FROM THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE RELATIVELY WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS TO GREATLY
INFLUENCE LOWS FOR COASTAL TOWNS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S OVER INTERIOR SE GA, TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
NE FL COAST. A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER DUVAL
COUNTY, WITH LOWS AROUND 50 OVER SOUTHWEST CORNER, TO AROUND 60 AT
THE BEACH SIDE COMMUNITIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THURSDAY, THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES HAVING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY, AS THE HIGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST, AND AN UPPER WAVE DIPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION
LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY CROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NE FL
BEACHES WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-5 FT, WHILE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIPS IS EXPECTED AT SE GA BEACHES WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-4 FT.
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE BUT AT LIGHT WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NE FL/SE GA
BEACHES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
WILL ALLOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE TONIGHT FOR THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX AS THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE SHOULD
PEAK AT LEVELS JUST BELOW 1.5 FT MHHW, SO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING WATER LEVELS, DESPITE THE RETURN TO N TO NW FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 48 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 60 80 63 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 76 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 77 64 82 64 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 81 59 87 59 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 82 61 85 62 / 10 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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