483
FXUS62 KJAX 201433
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1033 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON TUES &
WED MORNINGS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE (1021 MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALOFT...NEGATIVELY-TITLED TROUGHING WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH
ALREADY DIGGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. MEANWHILE, DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WAS
PLUNGING INTO OUR REGION, WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW ONE HALF INCH
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHILE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER
REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE IN NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHILE FAIR
SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES AT 14Z WERE MOSTLY IN THE
60S ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW AND MID
40S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO
THE MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT PIVOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SUPPORT ALOFT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL
WANE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OZARKS, AND THE OHIO
VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THE UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO
OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO ERODE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT, WITH THE LINGERING DRY
AIR MASS LIKELY KEEPING FAIR SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
GA.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA
AND ALSO ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL, WHILE HIGHS
CLIMB TO THE LOWER 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S FOR
MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA, WITH 50S ELSEWHERE INLAND AND 60-65
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TUESDAY, AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE, THAT THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DRY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S OVER INTERIOR SE GA, TO THE MID 60S ALONG COASTAL NE FL.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WITH HIGHER
READINGS OVER NE FL.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COOLING
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. THE
FLOW ALONG THE NE FL COAST WILL LARGELY BE FROM THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE RELATIVELY WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS TO GREATLY
INFLUENCE LOWS FOR COASTAL TOWNS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S OVER INTERIOR SE GA, TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
NE FL COAST. A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER DUVAL
COUNTY, WITH LOWS AROUND 50 OVER SOUTHWEST CORNER, TO AROUND 60 AT
THE BEACH SIDE COMMUNITIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THURSDAY, THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES HAVING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY, AS THE HIGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST, AND AN UPPER WAVE DIPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT GNV THROUGH AROUND 13Z, WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS AT SGJ LIKELY LIFT TO VFR BEFORE 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z
TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT GNV AND VQQ, WITH THIS FOG
POTENTIALLY SPREADING TO SGJ, CRG AND JAX TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AT VQQ AND GNV, WHILE CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INDICATE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT SGJ, CRG, AND JAX AT THIS
TIME. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 14Z, WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY 17Z. SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 20Z, FOLLOWED BY SPEEDS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS BY 05Z TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT SGJ DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT SGJ.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE BEFORE SPEEDS OF
15-20 KNOTS DIMINISH, WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS CONTINUING OFFSHORE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS OF 4-6 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR
LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AND
SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FEET OFFSHORE AND 3-5 FEET NEAR SHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TODAY,
YIELDING CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35 PERCENT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE,
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SPEEDS
COMBINING WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO CREATE FAIR TO GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
ON WEDNESDAY, CREATING LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35 PERCENT AGAIN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 48 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 60 80 63 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 76 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 77 64 82 64 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 81 59 87 59 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 82 61 85 62 / 10 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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