319
FXUS62 KJAX 201851
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. MINIMUM
VALUES OF 20-25% ON MON & WED AFTERNOONS
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND EARLY ON TUES & WED MORNINGS
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALOFT...NEGATIVELY-TITLED TROUGHING WAS PROGRESSING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND, WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST GOES- EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WAS PLUNGING INTO OUR REGION, WITH PWATS
FALLING BELOW ONE HALF INCH FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR, WHILE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR NORTH
CENTRAL FL. THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON STRATUS CLOUD COVER
THAT PLAGUED NORTH CENTRAL FL IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE WAS SCATTERING
INTO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK, WHILE FAIR SKIES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z HAVE RISEN TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT OUR
REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GA TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT PIVOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND,
SUPPORT ALOFT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL WANE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS
EVENING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OZARKS, AND THE OHIO
VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THE UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO
INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO ERODE TONIGHT AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL AND POSSIBLY THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
NORTHEAST FL, WITH THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS LIKELY KEEPING FAIR
SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S FOR
MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA, WITH 50S ELSEWHERE INLAND AND 60-65
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS AND WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AND SHIFT
ONSHORE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE
SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE COASTAL DISTRICTS.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 70S. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 40S
INLAND AND MID/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL INSTIGATE SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND SPREAD MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER
INLAND AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, THOUGH DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES THROUGH
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN A FASTER TRANSLATION IN THE EURO VERSUS
THE GFS. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH PREFRONTAL MOISTENING
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONE FACTOR THAT MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PASSING FRONT. HOWEVER, IF
MOISTENING OCCURS FASTER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE ISOLATED T'STORMS.
BENIGN WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS DRY, COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND TREND NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD
OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT GNV AND VQQ, WITH THIS FOG
POTENTIALLY SPREADING TO SGJ, CRG AND JAX TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AT VQQ AND GNV, WHILE CONFIDENCE WAS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE A SHORTER PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
AT JAX AND CRG AROUND SUNRISE AT THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 20Z, FOLLOWED BY SPEEDS OF 5
KNOTS OR LESS BY 05Z TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT SGJ DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT SGJ. SURFACE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AT SGJ AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 17Z. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AT THE REST OF THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH SPEEDS THEN INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY
17Z TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. SEAS OF
3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A
DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THIS
FEATURE THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY, RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 6-7 FOOT RANGE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY EXPAND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL YIELD CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35
PERCENT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, RESULTING
IN GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BECOME WEST-WSOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING SPEEDS COMBINING WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO CREATE
FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA ON WEDNESDAY, CREATING LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35 PERCENT AGAIN EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 82 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 59 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 55 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 64 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 58 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 61 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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