875
FXUS62 KJAX 202336
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
736 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- INLAND MORNING FOG TUESDAY NORTHEAST FLORIDA. VISIBILITY < 1 MILE AT TIMES. INLAND FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
NO MAJOR UPDATES OTHER THAN TO DROP THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
NE FLORIDA BEACHES AND FOLLOW-UP WITH A MODERATE RISK.
DRY AND COOL TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING INTO THE
LOW 60S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WERE DRIER AIR, CALM WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ENABLE LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA, SHALLOW MOISTURE
LINGER WITH SOME PASSING LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT NORTH OF A MEANDERING
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST EXTENDING INLAND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. INCREASED FOG COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING,
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. LOCALIZED VISIBILITY < 1 MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALOFT...NEGATIVELY-TITLED TROUGHING WAS PROGRESSING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND, WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST GOES- EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WAS PLUNGING INTO OUR REGION, WITH PWATS
FALLING BELOW ONE HALF INCH FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR, WHILE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR NORTH
CENTRAL FL. THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON STRATUS CLOUD COVER
THAT PLAGUED NORTH CENTRAL FL IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE WAS SCATTERING
INTO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK, WHILE FAIR SKIES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z HAVE RISEN TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT OUR
REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GA TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT PIVOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND,
SUPPORT ALOFT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL WANE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS
EVENING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OZARKS, AND THE OHIO
VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THE UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO
INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO ERODE TONIGHT AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL AND POSSIBLY THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
NORTHEAST FL, WITH THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS LIKELY KEEPING FAIR
SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S FOR
MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA, WITH 50S ELSEWHERE INLAND AND 60-65
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS AND WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AND SHIFT
ONSHORE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE
SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE COASTAL DISTRICTS.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 70S. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 40S
INLAND AND MID/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL INSTIGATE SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND SPREAD MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER
INLAND AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, THOUGH DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES THROUGH
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN A FASTER TRANSLATION IN THE EURO VERSUS
THE GFS. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH PREFRONTAL MOISTENING
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONE FACTOR THAT MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PASSING FRONT. HOWEVER, IF
MOISTENING OCCURS FASTER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE ISOLATED T'STORMS.
BENIGN WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS DRY, COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND TREND NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD
OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR THROUGH 06Z UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND TO
4-7 KTS AT THE COAST. CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING IFR FOR VQQ AND
GNV AFTER 07Z WITH TEMPO LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH 12/13Z. JAX WILL BE ON
THE 'FRINGE' OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS AND CONTINUED WITH MVFR
AT THIS TIME AFTER 07Z. FOG LIFTS INTO CUMULUS FIELD AFTER 13Z
TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z UNDER WSW WINDS 4-8 KTS, WHICH
WILL BECOMING SSE AFTER 18Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. SEAS OF
3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A
DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THIS
FEATURE THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY, RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 6-7 FOOT RANGE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY EXPAND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL YIELD CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35
PERCENT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, RESULTING
IN GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BECOME WEST-WSOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING SPEEDS COMBINING WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO CREATE
FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA ON WEDNESDAY, CREATING LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35 PERCENT AGAIN EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 48 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 59 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 75 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 76 64 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 79 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 81 61 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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