567
FXUS62 KJAX 211146
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
746 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
THROUGH FRIDAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z TONIGHT. PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS OF 3,500 -
4,500 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z TODAY. FOG AND/OR A
DECK OF STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
ONSHORE FROM APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE FL BIG BEND, SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT GNV AFTER 08Z, BUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PREDAWN OR EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AT GNV. OTHERWISE,
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 05Z, WITH
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM 06Z THROUGH AROUND 10Z.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS AT VQQ OVERNIGHT
AT THIS TIME. MVFR CEILINGS WILL OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE AT JAX,
CRG, AND SGJ DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP AFTER 13Z, WITH
PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN EXPECTED AFTER 17Z, WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL THEN
SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE AND INLAND AFTER 18Z, WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO EASTERLY AT SGJ AND SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT
SSI AND SGJ. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOWARDS SUNSET
AND THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
TODAY: FOLLOWING SOME EARLY MORNING INLAND LOCALLY DENSE FOG,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
DRY AIRMASS AND PWATS AS LOW AS 0.5 INCHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
WARM AND DRY DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S INLAND, WHILE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO 80F AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES.
TONIGHT: DRY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO THE LOCAL
AREA, PUSHING THROUGH SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LOCATED
ACROSS NE FL BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT 10% OR
LESS. NOT AS COOL TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION
AND KEEPS LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY MORE MIXED, BUT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS INLAND
SE GA, AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND LOWER 60S ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FORMATION ACROSS INLAND NE FL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. A DRY AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FROM THE NORTH. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DRY AIRMASS SOUTH INTO REGION. DEWPOINTS INLAND WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. ALONG THE NE FL COAST
THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A MORE MOIST AND MILDER AIRMASS
OFF THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST. LOWS OVER INLAND SE GA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S, WITH LOWS
ALONG THE NE FL COAST IN THE LOWER 60S.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE. AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST,
RESULTING IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE BEACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS FROM INLAND TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
THE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD A MORE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. TROUGHING ALONG THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONSHORE FLOW,
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY.
WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FURTHER AWAY
SUNDAY, AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. WITH
SURFACE RIDGING STILL IN PLACE THOUGH, THESE CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY,
SUNDAY, AND MONDAY WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP READINGS A
LITTLE ABOVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AS SEAS BUILD INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAIN IN PLACE AS
LIGHT ONSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH LEFTOVER LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
PRODUCE SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE TODAY, THEN DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK DOWN SURF CLOSER TO 2 FEET,
BUT LINGERING MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
COME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS AN UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. MINRH
LEVELS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER INTERIOR SE GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINRH LEVELS IN THE 20S WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MINRH LEVELS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 20S OVER INTERIOR SE GA FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 54 79 44 / 0 10 0 0
SSI 79 61 80 56 / 0 10 0 0
JAX 84 58 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 83 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 86 56 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 86 58 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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