461
FXUS62 KJAX 211754
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
154 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES THIS WEEK. AREAS
IMPACTED: INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-30% EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAIN AREAS
IMPACTED: SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. VISIBILITY < 1
MILE POSSIBLE
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON WED
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS OF 3,500 - 4,500
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z TODAY. FOG AND/OR A DECK
OF STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
ONSHORE FROM APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE FL BIG BEND, SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. CONFIDENCE
HAS BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
GNV BETWEEN 11Z-14Z WEDNESDAY. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF LOWER STRATUS AND/OR DENSE FOG MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL
AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD IFR CONDITIONS
AT GNV AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 04Z, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z THROUGH AROUND 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BEFORE 15Z WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE HAS CROSSED THE SGJ TERMINAL, WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT SSI TOWARDS 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOWARDS
SUNSET AND THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
15Z.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1020
MILLIBARS) STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, WHILE A
COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. OTHERWISE,
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH THAT WAS
DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS
SITUATED OVER OUR REGION, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM ONE-THIRD OF AN
INCH FOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GA NEAR THE ALTAMAHA / OCMULGEE
RIVERS TO JUST UNDER 1 INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE ALSO REVEALED A STOUT 3.5 DEGREE CELSIUS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BASED AROUND 900 MILLIBARS (AROUND 3,500
FEET). PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA, WITH THE DRY AIR MASS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OTHERWISE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S AS OF 15Z,
WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO RISING THROUGH THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FLOW SHOULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY UNTIL THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT CROSSING I-95 UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAT WILL
PREVIOUSLY EXIST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH THIS
BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF LATE THIS EVENING,
WITH THIS BANK OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY ADVECTING ONSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, POTENTIALLY OVERSPREADING THE I-75
CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL BY THE
PREDAWN HOURS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SCOURS OUT THE FOG AND
SHIFTS THE LOW STRATUS DECK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, KEEPING LOWS IN THE 50S. LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. A DRY AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FROM THE NORTH. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DRY AIRMASS SOUTH INTO REGION. DEWPOINTS INLAND WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. ALONG THE NE FL COAST
THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A MORE MOIST AND MILDER AIRMASS
OFF THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST. LOWS OVER INLAND SE GA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S, WITH LOWS
ALONG THE NE FL COAST IN THE LOWER 60S.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE. AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST,
RESULTING IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE BEACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS FROM INLAND TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
THE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD A MORE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. TROUGHING ALONG THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONSHORE FLOW,
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY.
WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FURTHER AWAY
SUNDAY, AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. WITH
SURFACE RIDGING STILL IN PLACE THOUGH, THESE CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY,
SUNDAY, AND MONDAY WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP READINGS A
LITTLE ABOVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL
PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE WEDGING DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL
WATERS BY FRIDAY AND THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING
THE WEEKEND. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET ON FRIDAY AND
THEN 5-7 FEET THIS WEEKEND. SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET
ON FRIDAY AND THEN 5-7 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND. COASTAL TROUGHING
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, CREATING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH OF WAYCROSS
AND WEST OF JESUP IN SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM
VALUES FALLING TO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE REST OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LATER
THIS MORNING, WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON,
CREATING FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
GOOD VALUES FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON FOR MOST
OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WHERE CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY TRANSPORT SPEEDS DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS CREATING GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY,
WITH FAIR VALUES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 79 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 62 79 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 59 84 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 61 81 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 58 84 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 59 84 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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