133
FXUS62 KJAX 211842
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES THIS WEEK. AREAS
IMPACTED: INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25% WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MAIN AREAS IMPACTED: SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL. VISIBILITY < 1 MILE POSSIBLE.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE OF CAROLINAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WAS CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS, WITH THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE,
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE (1027 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH THAT WAS
DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS
SITUATED OVER OUR REGION, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM ONE-THIRD OF AN
INCH FOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GA NEAR THE ALTAMAHA / OCMULGEE
RIVERS TO JUST UNDER 1 INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS ORGANIZING A MOSTLY FLAT
CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD INTO WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STREETS FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WHILE FAIR SKIES
PREVAILED WITHIN THE DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR LOCATIONS
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA AND OCMULGEE RIVERS TO THE 60S FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
EVENING, LOSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH THIS
BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF LATE THIS EVENING,
WITH THIS BANK OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY ADVECTING ONSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, POTENTIALLY OVERSPREADING THE I-75
CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL BY THE
PREDAWN HOURS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SCOURS OUT THE FOG
AND SHIFTS THE LOW STRATUS DECK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATE TONIGHT, KEEPING
LOWS IN THE 50S. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WITH DRY
WEATHER, MILD WINDS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THURSDAY. DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRESS INLAND OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING BREEZY WINDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY MIDWEEK WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPS DIPPING FROM OUT OF THE MID 80S ON TUESDAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY DIP DOWN FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MOIST BREEZY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. FOG AND/OR A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT ONSHORE FROM APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND, SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL. CONFIDENCE HAS BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS AT GNV BETWEEN 11Z-14Z WEDNESDAY. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF LOWER STRATUS AND/OR DENSE FOG MOVE
OVER THE TERMINAL AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
ADD IFR CONDITIONS AT GNV AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 04Z, WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM 06Z THROUGH AROUND 10Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
BEFORE 15Z WEDNESDAY. WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 22Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS CROSSED THE SGJ TERMINAL,
WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SSI TOWARDS 20Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOWARDS SUNSET AND THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT,
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE WEDGING DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL
WATERS BY FRIDAY AND THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TO THE 4-6 FOOT RANGE ON FRIDAY AND WILL THEN
PEAK IN THE 7-9 FOOT RANGE THIS WEEKEND. SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL
BUILD TO 4-6 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY AND WILL THEN PEAK IN THE 6-9
FOOT RANGE THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, CREATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH OF WAYCROSS
AND WEST OF JESUP IN SOUTHEAST GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MINIMUM VALUES FALLING TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE REST OF
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, CREATING FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
AT MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT GOOD VALUES FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHERE CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ARE FORECAST. OTHERWISE,
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY TRANSPORT SPEEDS DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS CREATING GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WITH FAIR VALUES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 79 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 62 79 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 59 84 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 61 81 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 58 84 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 59 84 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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