330
FXUS62 KJAX 220436
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1236 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES THIS WEEK. AREAS
IMPACTED: INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-30% EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAIN
AREAS IMPACTED: SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. VISIBILITY
< 1 MILE POSSIBLE
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOISTURE POOLING IN LIGHT SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS INLAND NE FL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AREAS
OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND I-10 CORRIDOR
WEST OF JAX. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
3AM-8AM TIME FRAME EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
TODAY: DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL BY THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
DESPITE THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL STILL
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS NE FL AND AROUND 80F ACROSS SE GA. THESE WARMER TEMPS AND
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL STILL
SUPPORT A WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND TO THE
I-95/US-17 CORRIDORS LATE IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE US STATES JUST TO THE
NW OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE LIGHT NW TO N FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR AS PWATS DROP BELOW 0.50
INCHES AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES, AIDED BY THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER
INLAND AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S INLAND SE GA
AND MID/UPPER 40S INLAND NE FL AND LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND DOWN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY ONSHORE TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY, THEN MORE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INVERTED TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO HELP ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY, WITH
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING HIGH AND INVERTED TROUGH INCREASING
GRADIENT OVER AREA FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, FRIDAY COULD BECOME BREEZY
ALONG NE FL BEACHES.
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER RIDGING, THIS WILL REMAIN A DRY PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED MORE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. INVERTED TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE REGION,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY, MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST, WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA. THESE WAVES WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS DURING
THE DAY TIME HOURS THIS PERIOD, WITH THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
YIELDING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
LIFR CONDS IN DENSE FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT VQQ AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. LIFR CONDS IN FOG IS EXPECTED AT GNV
BY 08-10Z AND IFR VSBYS AT JAX BY 08-10Z AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNRISE (12Z) PRIOR TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE. WINDS
PICKUP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES, THEN WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL TAF
SITES OF SSI/CRG/SGJ BY THE 21Z TIME FRAME. WINDS DECREASE TO 5
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND COASTAL SHOWERS RETURN TO THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAIN IN PLACE
DESPITE THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL BE REPLACED BY
A WEAK ONSHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AND MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SURF/BREAKERS AROUND 2 FEET OR SO. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
LIKELY HIGH SURF ADVISORY HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
WILL PROVIDE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ELEVATED AND GUSTY COASTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. PATCHY TO AREAS OF INLAND FOG THIS MORNING. THE FOG
MAY BECOME DENSE. INLAND MINRH VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S WILL BE
COMMON THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 80 43 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 79 54 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 84 50 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 81 57 77 62 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 85 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 85 54 80 53 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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