535
FXUS62 KJAX 221622
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1222 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS IMPACTED: INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-30% EACH
AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES. HIGH RISK
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE (1022 MILLIBARS) BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGHING WAS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKED AND OHIO VALLEY, CREATING
A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WAS
ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST GA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WHERE PWATS WERE FALLING BELOW 0.5 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF WAYCROSS. A NARROW RIBBON OF PWATS AROUND 1 INCH WERE
LOCATED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE COLD FRONT.
FAIR SKIES PREVAIL AREA-WIDE DUE TO STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE, WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THE NOON HOUR RISING THROUGH THE 70S REGION-WIDE.
DEWPOINTS AT 16Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA/OCMULGEE RIVERS TO THE MID 60S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL FL.
COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LAG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY SPILLING
INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNSET.
A DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BREEZE AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LOW AND MID 80S INLAND. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT COASTAL LOCATIONS,
KEEPING HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
OVERNIGHT, WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADING OUR REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TEND TO TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT, CREATING A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT WILL ADD TO THE SEASONABLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS THAT ARE FORECAST. STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COULD BRING A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP TO THE LOW AND MID 40S FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY, RANGING TO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S ELSEWHERE FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL. THE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL LOWS
IN THE 50S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY, THEN MORE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INVERTED TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO HELP ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY, WITH
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING HIGH AND INVERTED TROUGH INCREASING
GRADIENT OVER AREA FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, FRIDAY COULD BECOME BREEZY
ALONG NE FL BEACHES.
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER RIDGING, THIS WILL REMAIN A DRY PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED MORE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. INVERTED TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE REGION,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY, MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST, WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA. THESE WAVES WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS DURING
THE DAY TIME HOURS THIS PERIOD, WITH THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
YIELDING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z THIS EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 04Z AT VQQ, WITH PREVAILING
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 04Z-08Z. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LIFT AT VQQ AS A LIGHT
NORTHERLY BREEZE DEVELOPS BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TONIGHT AT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS 13Z,
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AT SGJ AND AFTER
20Z AT CRG AND JAX. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 05Z TONIGHT AT SGJ, WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
5 KNOTS OR LESS DEVELOP ELSEWHERE TOWARDS 10Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET BOTH
NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PEAK IN THE 5-7 FOOT RANGE
NEAR SHORE AND 6-8 FEET OFFSHORE. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT, POTENTIALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST, WITH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT
EXPECTED AT THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED MIXING
HEIGHTS TO CREATE FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, WHILE
POOR VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME ONSHORE BY MID-AFTERNOON. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH DECREASING SPEEDS
YIELDING MAINLY FAIR DAYTIME VALUES, EXCEPT GOOD VALUES FOR THE
OCALA NATIONAL FOREST. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE
FORECAST AND MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST. LIGHTER SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WILL RESULT IN
FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON FRIDAY. BREEZY EASTERLY
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND, CREATING GOOD TO MARGINALLY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES AREA-WIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 81 43 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 79 51 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 83 48 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 80 59 77 62 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 84 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 84 56 80 53 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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