730
FXUS62 KJAX 020622
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
122 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT & MONDAY
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST & PORTIONS OF THE
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN BEGINS TUESDAY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
RISK POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NIGHT
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
A POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, MOVING
INTO GA AND SC TONIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY AS BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONG TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED
AND WE'LL START OFF WITH PWATS BELOW 1 INCH, BUT INCREASES TO
ABOUT 1 - 1.2 INCHES DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM A DEEPENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY MOST AREAS TODAY GIVEN THE
CURRENT STATE OF THE DRY AIRMASS, BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE, BOTH
DUE TO BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE FROM CONVECTION IN THE GULF SPREADING DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR AREA BY LATER TODAY.
A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
PASSES OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO ANY THUNDER IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST
GA SOUTHWARD TO THE COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER/MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT UP TO NEAR 0.25 INCHES, AND
AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
AN UPPER LOW TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, PUSHING ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS BECOMING ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE EARLY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST- NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS, DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE DAYS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S AREA WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TO LOWER TO MID 40S FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND SE GA, WHILE
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
ON TUESDAY, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM A BIT
MORE COMPARED TO MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AS ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR. TUESDAY
EVENING, SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION WILL HAVE LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S, WHILE LOCATIONS WEST OF THE THE ST JOHNS
RIVER IN THE LOWER 50S AND COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN MIDWEEK, CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR,
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WARMING
TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S, REACHING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE WEEKEND. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S OVER SE GA WITH LOWER/MID 50S OVER NE FL AND COASTAL
LOCATIONS MIDWEEK. BY THE WEEKEND, LOWS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
50S FOR SE GA WHILE THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER NE FL AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE MIST AND FOG AROUND VQQ EARLY THIS MORNING,
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY WITH ALSO SCATTERED CUMULUS FOR
COASTAL TAFS BY MIDDAY. INCREASING CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY SUPPORT OF A PROB30 GROUP. AT THIS TIME, THE
CHANCE OF MVFR IN CIG OR VIS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS
DEVELOP FOR COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY ABOUT 10 KT FORECAST TODAY WITH SEAS
OF ABOUT 2-3 FT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED JUST BEYOND OUR
LOCAL WATERS OR AT AROUND 50-60 NM FROM SHORE. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY
MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, AND
LIKELY RAISING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH MLB AND CHS, WILL HOLD OFF ON RAISING SCA HEADLINE
BUT MAY BE RAISED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE HREF PROBABILITIES. A BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND LASTS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY GIVEN
THE SURF IS ABOUT 1-2 FT AND WE SEE ONLY SLIGHT ONSHORE WIND
TODAY. MODERATE RISK MOSTLY EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
MONDAY, WITH A LOWER RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
GIVEN THE PARALLEL OR SLIGHT OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS,
WITH PATCHY AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS. MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED OVER FAR INLAND SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO NEAR THE AREA TODAY, PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS DEVELOP, BRINGING GOOD TO VERY
GOOD DISPERSIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS BOTH
SE GA AND NE FL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S TO 40S FOR SE GA AND THE 40S TO 50S FOR NE FL.
HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
THE NEXT PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE NEXT FULL MOON
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY. NOV 4TH-7TH IS THE TIME PERIOD OF THE PEAK
IN PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COMBINATION
OF THE NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS AND THESE PEAK ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES PUSHING COASTAL AREAS INTO MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, WITH
TOTAL WATER LEVELS PEAKING AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH
WATER (MHHW) BY THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. THEREFORE, THIS MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 46 69 43 / 10 30 20 10
SSI 72 55 68 53 / 20 40 30 10
JAX 74 53 71 48 / 20 40 30 10
SGJ 74 57 71 56 / 10 30 30 10
GNV 77 52 72 48 / 20 30 20 10
OCF 77 54 72 48 / 20 30 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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