388
FXUS62 KJAX 040606
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
106 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST &
PORTIONS OF ST JOHNS RIVER
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
MODERATE RISK EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WHILE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WHILE BREEZY SURFACE WINDS BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE OVER THE COURSE OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND AREAS ALONG THE COASTLINE. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INLAND LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS SHOWING A MEAN LAYER HIGH FROM THE SURFACE TO
500 MB ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWEST
INTO THE GULF THIS PERIOD. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND SUBSIDENT
WITH PWATS OF BELOW 1 INCH. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM GA AND SC AND OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NOTED OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL WEAKEN, BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT DISSIPATE
AND THEN LIFT NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AND LOWS FROM THE 40S INLAND, AND THEN 50S TOWARD THE COAST. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING, AND MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO GA AND AL.
THIS HIGH AND RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOST OF THE AREA STAYS
DRY WITH THE RETURN FLOW NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MOISTURE LEVELS
NOT GREAT FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT OR STALL, BUT
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER, ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
BY SUNDAY, MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT
RETURN / SOUTHERLY FLOW. SATURDAY'S FORECAST HIGH TEMPS, IN THE
LOWER 80S, ARE JUST 2-4 DEG BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS FOR JAX AND
CRG. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, IT WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK
TO ONLY BE IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAINFALL IS LOW BUT THERE IS SOME LINGERING
CHANCE THAT SOME LOW POPS (I.E., 20 PERCENT) MAY BE NEEDED FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST WINDS BEFORE AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AND THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE A PRETTY
DRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE WEEKEND'S TEMPS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
BUILDING IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER ABOUT 15Z WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 15-20 KT FOR COASTAL
SITES AND THEN BECOMING MORE MILD AND VARIABLE BY ABOUT 23Z-01Z
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS TO DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE
OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY,
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK FOR NE FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY AND THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE RISK FOR SE
GEORGIA BEACHES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
UPCOMING FULL MOON AND PERIGEE WILL BRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO
ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET MHHW ALONG THE COAST AND INSIDE THE ST JOHNS
RIVER TO ABOUT DOWNTOWN JAX. THIS COUPLED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE SHY OF MINOR FLOODING LEVELS
BY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF A FOOT, BUT THE NEXT ONE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHER WHICH WOULD PUSH A FEW SITES INTO
LOW-END MINOR FLOODING LEVELS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FROM DOWNTOWN
JAX SOUTHWARD MAY ESCAPE MINOR FLOODING LEVELS, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND GUIDANCE FORECASTS. TOTAL
WATER LEVELS MAY PEAK AROUND THE 1.5 TO 2 FOOT RANGE ABOVE MEAN
HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW) DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER EAST OF
DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 42 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 69 57 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 73 53 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 74 61 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 78 53 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 78 55 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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