111
FXUS62 KJAX 041727
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1227 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY. MODERATE
RISK EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST &
PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN WED & THURS
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
CLEAR SKIES, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WITH COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA STAYING IN THE LOW 60S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON SITES REACHING MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE ST.
JOHNS, BUT THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
AXIS OF ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLED ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING OUR PERIOD OF DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER. VERY LIGHT AND ALMOST VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A MODEST JUMP IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, AS MORE
READINGS IN THE 80S WILL BE EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS THE
MORE DIFFUSE PORTION OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA, THOUGH LOSING MOMENTUM TO OUR NORTH AND ESSENTIALLY STALL BY
THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
AS WINDS STIR UP JUST A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND MORE CLOUDS
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL BE COMMON OVER
NORTHEAST FL AND AT THE COASTS, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
MORE INTERIOR GA.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
THE REGION. THIS HOWEVER WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED, AS THE
ASSOCIATED QUICKLY MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SHIFT THE LAYER FLOW AS IT DOES SO. A WEAK "SURGE" OF DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, BUT WILL
ALSO NOT GET VERY FAR WITH OVERALL A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER RESULT
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR TEMPS TO WEDNESDAY WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST, AND
JUST SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST FL.
MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER AS WELL AS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS, WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED INLAND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
FLOW SHIFTS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE SEVERAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES LOOK TO AFFECT TO THE AREA LATE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WILL LOSE MOST MOMENTUM BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE AREA BEFORE A
SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT AND MUCH STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING AND PRECONDITIONING AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES, CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS LIKELY AROUND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
USHERING IN ANOTHER COOL LATE FALL AIRMASS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, LOW VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT VQQ.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS TO
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO SETTLE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK FOR NE FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY AND THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE RISK FOR SE
GEORGIA BEACHES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
UPCOMING FULL MOON AND PERIGEE WILL BRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO
ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET MHHW ALONG THE COAST AND INSIDE THE ST JOHNS
RIVER TO ABOUT DOWNTOWN JAX. THIS COUPLED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE SHY OF MINOR FLOODING LEVELS
BY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF A FOOT, BUT THE NEXT ONE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHER WHICH WOULD PUSH A FEW SITES INTO
LOW-END MINOR FLOODING LEVELS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FROM DOWNTOWN
JAX SOUTHWARD MAY ESCAPE MINOR FLOODING LEVELS, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND GUIDANCE FORECASTS. TOTAL
WATER LEVELS MAY PEAK AROUND THE 1.5 TO 2 FOOT RANGE ABOVE MEAN
HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW) DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER EAST OF
DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 44 78 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 58 75 56 74 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 53 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 62 78 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 53 82 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 55 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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