808
FXUS62 KJAX 050612
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
112 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY.
MODERATE RISK EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
- ELEVATED TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST & PORTIONS OF
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN TODAY & THURS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BEGIN LATE SUNDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZE NEXT TUE AM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
RESULTING IN MORE MILD AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BEFORE MID-MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND RANGING
UP INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ALONG THE
COASTLINE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MS VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND THEN
INTO WESTERN NC, NORTH AL/MS LINE BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY,
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY, AS RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH USHERS IN A WARM AND A BIT MORE HUMID AIRMASS. COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST FL
WATERS ON FRIDAY, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
OVER LAND ZONES. AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVER FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA ZONES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY, AND MOSTLY LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 50S
ELSEWHERE. NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES WELL AHEAD OF THE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OCCUR AS THE
FLOW VEERS AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL,
WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULUS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING.
MAIN HEADLINES WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING, AND ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS DUE TO THE FULL MOON AND PERIGEE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
A MORE MOIST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE FIRST
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS
FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS CHANCE WILL ONLY LINGER SATURDAY,
BUT PROBABLY NOT SAT NIGHT AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST, AS WEAK AS IT IS. THE FRONT WILL MORE OR LESS STALL
UNTIL ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY, MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND FRONT SO ONLY 10-20 PERCENT CHANCES
ARE NOTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILE THAN THE GFS SO THROWS SOME GREATER UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST POPS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS JUST SHY OF
RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY FOR JAX AND CRG CLIMATE SITES. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY AS TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE REGION.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, USHERING IN
ANOTHER COOL LATE FALL AIRMASS ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID 60S ARE
FORECAST. THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS SIMILARLY UP TO 14-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THUS, WE COULD
SEE SOME RECORD LOWS NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR.
IN FACT, WE HAVE TEMPS IN THE 30S AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZE FOR INLAND AREAS TUESDAY MORNING FROM ABOUT I-10 NORTHWARD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS, PRIMARILY
IMPACTING VQQ, WILL LIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BY AROUND
10Z-12Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC RESULTING IN DIMINISHING ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY, POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY-
SUNDAY, POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR AREA
WATERS AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK FOR NE FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY AND THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE ON THURSDAY. MODERATE RISK FOR SE
GEORGIA BEACHES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION TODAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30S POSSIBLE INLAND AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PATCHY MORNING
GROUND FOG ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHER DISPERSIONS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT MAY REACH UP TO 75 UNITS,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
LATEST FORECAST SUGGEST WE MAY BE SHY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLD
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK NORTHEAST / ONSHORE
FLOW. NONETHELESS, ACTION STAGES WILL BE REACHED AT MANY SITES GIVEN
THE FULL MOON/ PERIGEE FOR TODAY. WILL ADVERTISE ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS AS OPPOSED TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 75 56 74 59 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 80 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 78 58 77 62 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 82 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 81 55 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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