307
FXUS62 KJAX 060554
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1254 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE
WARNING POSSIBLE DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
- FROST & LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RED FLAG
WATCHES/WARNINGS POSSIBLE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS WITH RESPECT TO FOG
COVERAGE. VERY LIGHT WINDS AND AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
OVER INTERIOR NORTHEAST FL. OTHERWISE, A BIT MORE MILD FOR MOST
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST TO
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH AND EAST.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S, WITH AREAS NORTH OF WAYCROSS SEEING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PRE-
DAWN.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, CLEARING TO THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHIFT TO BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
FIRST OF A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS ITS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE
AREA. THE SHIFT IN FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF AND MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN SE GA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM GRADUALLY INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THURSDAY NIGHT,
LOWS WILL SPAN IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS MAY FEEL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S, BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AND
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONTS, MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES OF
FOG FOR INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN INLAND LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BY SUNDAY, ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT PUSH
INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND
WILL MAKE WAY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURE HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S BY MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS. TEMPERATURE LOWS WILL BEGIN TO TICK
DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S DROP
FURTHER TO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER
INLAND SE GA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SETUP THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING CONTINUES TO BE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR AIRFIELDS MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY AND THEREFORE HAVE
DONE THE SAME FOR THIS LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER, AT LEAST
MVFR WILL BE EXPECTED FOR AIRFIELDS AWAY FROM THE COAST, AND TEMPO
IFR RESTRICTIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY. BE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS ANY AMENDMENTS
ACCORDINGLY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
JUST UNDER 10KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC RESULTING IN DIMINISHING ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
IS SLATED TO CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED
BY ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK FOR NE FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY AND THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TOMORROW. LOW RISK FOR SE GEORGIA
BEACHES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 79 50 81 58 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 74 59 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 79 55 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 76 62 79 62 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 81 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 80 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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