654
FXUS62 KJAX 070533
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE
WARNINGS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- FROST & LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT VQQ THROUGH AROUND 13Z.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS AFTER 08Z AS HIGH CLOUD COVER EXITS THE REGION, EXCEPT
AT SGJ, WHERE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 3,500 FEET ARE FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE
VFR CEILINGS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARDS CRG AFTER 13Z, LIKELY
SCOURING OUT LOWER VISIBILITIES BY THAT TIME FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BEFORE 15Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z FRIDAY AT
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10
KNOTS DEVELOPING EARLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS THAT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT GNV BY 22Z.
MEANWHILE, THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS THE SGJ
AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 17Z, WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
INLAND, CROSSING THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR ACROSS INLAND SE GA
AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL SIT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE OUTER WATERS, BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW.
NEAR CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TO EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO FRIDAY OVER SE GA AND
SOUTH TOWARDS LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NE FL.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN SOME MORE MOISTURE
TO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S.. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S (COOLER NEAR THE COAST) EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MILD LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST
BOTH NIGHTS, LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. FOG IS LIKELY OVER MOST
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
WIDESPREAD INLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY, BRINGING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR TO START THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STAY IN
THE 50S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND LOWER 60S FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, IF NOT A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST FREEZE
OF THE SEASON FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL HOVER NEAR
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH FROST LIKELY FOR MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS. IT WILL START TO WARM UP WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS ABOVE FREEZING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
LIGHT TO BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, BECOMING
LIGHT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO AREA WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING BREEZY WINDS WITH AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LIKELY OVER AREA WATERS FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A GALE WARNING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RIP CURRENT: RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE TODAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 FEET AND AN UPTICK IN ONSHORE FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 80 57 81 62 / 0 10 20 10
SSI 76 61 78 64 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 81 59 84 64 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 79 62 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 83 59 85 64 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 82 60 84 64 / 10 0 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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