570
FXUS62 KJAX 070708
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
208 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
...NEW SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...
KEY MESSAGES
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HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
- FROST & LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL GA AND EXTENDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE (1023 MILLIBARS) SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE PLAINS STATES.
ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES,
DOWNSTREAM OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT WAS BEGINNING TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW WAS TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST, SPREADING A SWATH OF MOSTLY HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUD COVER THAT WAS POISED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GA OVERNIGHT, WITH THIS CLOUD COVER ALSO EXITING THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DEPARTING CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 07Z RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE
LOW AND MID 60S ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST
OF SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT, WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY EXPANDING
TO THE INTERSTATE 10 AND POSSIBLY I-75 CORRIDORS DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY THE
MID-MORNING HOURS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING MAY SHARPEN A COASTAL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ALONG THE FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTY COASTS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA TOWARDS NOON. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL LOCALLY
TODAY, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GA LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY THIS
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LOCALLY,
ALLOWING FOR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INLAND AS SKIES BECOME FAIR LATER THIS MORNING. THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN OUR
PREVAILING SUBSIDENT AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BOOSTING INLAND HIGHS TO THE LOW AND MID 80S. THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TODAY.
DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS FROM
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT, WITH A NARROW
RIBBON OF PWATS AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES SURGING OFF OF THE NORTHERN
GULF, ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
ENHANCED MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS SUNRISE FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND ALONG THE ALAPAHA /
OCMULGEE / UPPER ALTAMAHA RIVERS IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY ADVECT OFF APALACHEE BAY ACROSS
THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
PREDAWN HOURS, WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING
PRIOR TO REACHING THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WHICH
COULD SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODESTLY DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.
EXPECTING MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER INTERIOR GA AND
THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH MORE SUN THAT CLOUDS MORE LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST FL. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE
COMMON SATURDAY, WHICH MAY FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS, ESPECIALLY FOR
JAX AND CRG. POTENTIAL FOR FOG CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AS MUCH MILDER LOWS IN THE 60S WILL BE
COMMON AREA WIDE.
AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
INTERIOR GA AROUND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING,
QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DYNAMICS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE, THEY MOSTLY LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION, MEAN LAYER MOISTURE IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
AS PWATS ONLY PEAK IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEREFORE, ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF A T'STORM BEING
GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF WAYCROSS CLOSER TO THE MOST FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS DURING DAYTIME HEATING/HIGHEST INSTABILITY. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AS LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
FOR HIGH TEMPS. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WE
GET ON SUNDAY, WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS OVER
NORTHEAST FL MAKE A PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FILLS IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT, AS BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND
TEMPERATURES CRASH RATHER QUICKLY ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. A
DROP OF 30+ DEGREES WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AREA
WIDE NEAR SUNSET SUNDAY DROP INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND
THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FROM ABOUT
JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE
FALL/WINTER SEASON THUS FAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH MOVES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR FIRST
SIGNIFICANT FROST AND FREEZE OF THE SEASON WILL BE LIKELY BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS BLUSTERY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA. TEMPS DO REBOUND A BIT LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY, THOUGH STILL LEANING BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT VQQ THROUGH AROUND 13Z.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS AFTER 08Z AS HIGH CLOUD COVER EXITS THE REGION, EXCEPT
AT SGJ, WHERE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 3,500 FEET ARE FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE
VFR CEILINGS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARDS CRG AFTER 13Z, LIKELY
SCOURING OUT LOWER VISIBILITIES BY THAT TIME FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BEFORE 15Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z FRIDAY AT
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10
KNOTS DEVELOPING EARLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS THAT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT GNV BY 22Z.
MEANWHILE, THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS THE SGJ
AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 17Z, WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
INLAND, CROSSING THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
FOG MAY IMPACT THE WATERS NORTH OF MAYPORT EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL
PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY,
WITH WESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING
TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNRISE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE BY
EARLY MONDAY NEAR SHORE AND THEN WILL PEAK IN THE 5-7 FOOT RANGE
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE, SEAS OFFSHORE
WILL BUILD TO CAUTION LEVELS OF 4-6 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, PEAKING IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WILL
BECOME CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE MAY ALLOW FOR A LOWER END MODERATE RISKS AT THE NORTHEAST
FL BEACHES. LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW OVERALL RISK AT
THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL YIELD A LOW RISK
AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING RATHER QUICKLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
ACCORDINGLY. BOTH LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND MIXING WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GOOD DISPERSIONS INLAND, AND EVEN HIGH IN SOME AREAS
OVER FAR INLAND GA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD DISPERSIONS WILL
CONTINUE INLAND FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH MORE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR
AREAS MORE NORTH AND WEST.
FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER,
BREEZY, AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FREEZE LOOKS
LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION,
CRITICALLY LOW DAYTIME RH AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND:
NOVEMBER 8:
KJAX: 85/2024
KCRG: 84/2020
KGNV: 89/2018
KAMG: 86/2000
NOVEMBER 9:
KJAX: 88/1986
KCRG: 85/2018
KGNV: 88/1986
KAMG: 87/1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 59 81 62 / 0 10 20 10
SSI 78 60 78 64 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 82 60 84 63 / 0 0 10 0
SGJ 82 62 83 65 / 0 0 10 0
GNV 84 59 84 64 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 83 61 83 65 / 10 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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