279
FXUS62 KJAX 081648
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1148 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE
WARNINGS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT
- WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20- 25 INLAND EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING
- FREEZES LIKELY AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON TUES & WED
MORNINGS. WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY LATE TUES NIGHT & EARLY WED
MORNING
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH SE GA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL
THIS ENERGY ALOFT IS WEAKER, WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE, BUT
STILL EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
STORM AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES ACROSS NE FL AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. LIGHT SW FLOW OFF THE NE GULF TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL
AROUND MIDNIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE RATHER DENSE WITH
VISIBILITY DOWN AROUND 1/4 MILE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS REGION, BUT ALSO FOR
POINTS TO THE NE ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL AND INTO SE GA AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO ADVECT THIS LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ALL THE WAY TO THE NE FL/SE GA COASTLINE BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER A BIT BEFORE
LIFTING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY FALLING
INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST,
WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. CONDITIONS
WILL CLEAR ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND
THEN BECOMING MORE DIMINISHED OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY BY MONDAY AS COLD AIR SETTLES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS DROPPING FROM OUT OF THE
80S ON SUNDAY INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY DROP DOWN FROM OUT
OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER TO MID
30S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, DRY WEATHER,
AND MILD WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM OUT OF
THE NORTH BY AROUND MIDWEEK, CONTINUING THE PATTERN OF DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH INITIALLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RISING TO BE NEAR
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
13Z AT CRG, VQQ AND GNV. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 14Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
APPROACH THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WAS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE VICINITY COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM APALACHEE
BAY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AFTER 03Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY AT GNV, VQQ, AND JAX. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE
AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS, WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REMAIN BELOW 5 KNOTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS BY 15Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONLY MOVE
SLOWLY INLAND ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER
18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS TOWARDS 00Z, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
BY 04Z SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS AT
ALL TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MAINLY IN THE
09-12Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS WESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN GALE WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WILL BECOME
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING FOR
WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW, ALONG WITH SURF/BREAKERS
AROUND 2 FEET OR SO. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
KEEPS SURF/BREAKERS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND:
NOVEMBER 8:
KJAX: 85/2024
KCRG: 84/2020
KGNV: 89/2018
KAMG: 86/2000
NOVEMBER 9:
KJAX: 88/1986
KCRG: 85/2018
KGNV: 88/1986
KAMG: 87/1986
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
NOVEMBER 11:
KJAX: 35/1977
KCRG: 37/1991
KGNV: 31/1943
KAMG: 27/1943
NOVEMBER 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 82 40 54 / 10 30 0 0
SSI 64 80 46 58 / 0 10 0 0
JAX 64 85 46 59 / 0 20 0 0
SGJ 66 82 50 62 / 10 20 0 0
GNV 65 84 48 61 / 10 20 0 0
OCF 66 82 50 60 / 20 20 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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