799
FXUS62 KJAX 040540
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1240 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS
MORNING
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR INLAND AREAS
- POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA FRI & SAT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE
- LIGHT FREEZES AND FROST POSSIBLE ON TUES & WED NIGHTS NEXT WEEK
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FROST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL CLEAR WITH
THE SUNRISE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INITIALLY BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST AND A MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER GEORGIA. MILD PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE 60S UP INTO THE MID 70S FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH WARMER TEMPS OCCURRING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COASTLINE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ONGOING AND PREVAILING SOUTH–SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE WARM-AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INLAND. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY, AND LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE-SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-60S TO THE LOW-80S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL RAISE PWATS INTO THE
1.6–1.8 INCH RANGE, WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS
A FOCUS FOR ASCENT, WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO AREAS
EXPERIENCING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT, WITH STORM TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. HOWEVER, MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR WHERE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOP OVER A SHORT PERIOD. THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY SET UP ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE WPC HAS
EXPANDED ITS MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO INCLUDE BOTH
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE SATURDAY OUTLOOK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD, SETTLING JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA–GEORGIA LINE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A FEW
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING, DIMINISHING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND ENDING ALTOGETHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE 72 HOUR (3 DAY TOTAL) PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FROM LIVE OAK FL TO BAXLEY GA
WESTWARD RANGES FROM 50 TO 90 PERCENT.
THE 72 HOUR PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FROM HOMERVILLE TO DENTON, GA WESTWARD RANGES
FROM 33 TO 67 PERCENT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID-60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S. GUIDANCE
ALSO INDICATES THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER, DRIER REINFORCING FRONT ON
MONDAY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH STRONG
MODEL AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
VFR WITH A SLOW THICKENING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD,ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OF 3-5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
6-9 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TODAY. HAVE KEPT THE BRIEF MVFR FOG IN THE TAF
FORECAST FOR VQQ IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT WITH
WINDS VEERING TO A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT, WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ON FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS
RAINFALL ENDS.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY
NE FL MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR DISPERSION TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
AND TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INCREASING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SOUTH–SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY, SUPPORTING FAIR DISPERSIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 60 48 57 / 70 90 70 80
SSI 52 70 53 63 / 50 60 60 60
JAX 51 78 55 68 / 30 40 40 50
SGJ 57 80 60 72 / 10 10 30 40
GNV 53 79 61 73 / 10 30 40 50
OCF 56 80 62 76 / 10 20 30 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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