638
FXUS62 KJAX 050613
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
113 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG & NORTH OF I-10 ON TODAY AND
TONIGHT
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA SAT & SAT
NIGHT
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST FL LATE
SAT. ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. SEVERE WEATHER NOT
ANTICIPATED.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR INLAND AREAS
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON NIGHT & TUESDAY
NIGHT NEXT WEEK
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING CHANNELS
ACROSS THE REGION, SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
GEORGIA. BREEZY WINDS WILL BUILD IN OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MILD AND VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL REACH UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND INTO
THE 60S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY
WITH TEMPS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA RISING INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND INTO THE MID 60S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, WITH WARMER TEMPS OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY AM HOURS LEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MESSY AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND, BUT BENEFICIAL RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO SET UP. FOR SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY EASE SOUTH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
RIDE WEST TO EAST IN THE PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. THE
FRONT SHOULD SLIDE INTO CENTRAL FL BY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL
BEGIN TO STALL AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN RESPONSE TO MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS LATTER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR AREA, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SYNOPTIC
LIFT AFFECTING THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MONDAY MORNING, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
NOTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AT THAT TIME.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND,
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH ZONES WHERE SOME MID TO UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. CHILLY FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 55 TO 60. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND THE HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN.
AS FAR AS WEATHER, HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN, CATEGORICAL ABOVE 75 PERCENT
FOR SOUTHEAST GA ON SATURDAY, WITH THIS ENHANCED RAIN CHANCE SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
LIKELY RAIN FOR JUST ABOVE ANY LOCATION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AS BETTER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AVAILABLE AND THERE IS SCANT BUOYANCY IN
TANDEM. ANY THUNDER PROBABLY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE GRADUALLY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WE HAVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1-2 INCHES FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 INCHES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT SHIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE FL PENINSULA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE
OHIO AND TN VALLEY AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO MID WEEK. A COASTAL
TROUGH SEEMS TO FORM BY TUE AND INTO EARLY WED KEEPING THE COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL BREEZY AT TIMES, BUT NO RAIN IS MENTIONED AT THIS
TIME. THE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT,
WITH A WEAK DRY FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY BUT SHOULD
BE RAIN-FREE BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE DRY FRONT APPROACHES.
OVERALL, CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INLAND LIGHT FREEZE AND/OR FROST FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
LIGHT RAINFALL HAS OVERSPREAD ALL OF SE GA EARLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL IMPACT THE SSI TERMINAL WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND 6SM VSBYS IN
SHRA AT TIMES THROUGH 06Z, OTHERWISE MID CLOUD DECKS IN THE 7000-
10000FT RANGE WILL PUSH ACROSS NE FL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES (VCSH) AT JAX/VQQ/CRG WHILE REMAINING DRY AT GNV/SGJ
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
LIKELY ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT ANY FOG FOG FORMATION. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-18 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING BY
15Z ONWARD WITH VFR CONDS REMAINING AT NE FL TERMINALS, WHILE MVFR
CIGS SET UP AT SSI. WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, REACHING SSI
BY 18Z WITH LOWER MVFR CIGS AND NW WINDS AT 10G15 KNOTS, THEN LIFR
BY 21Z TIME FRAME. THE MVFR CIGS/SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WIND SHIFT TO
NW REACHES JAX/VQQ/CRG BY 21-22Z AND SGJ/GNV RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AND HAVE TWEAKED TAF FORECAST TO SHOW THIS DOWNWARD TREND
IN CIGS/VSBYS.
MARINE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS TODAY, ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS RAINFALL ENDS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SATURDAY
NE FL LOW SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET FOR TODAY THROUGH AND THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST GA INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST FL
LATE SATURDAY INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS
WELL, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
THE CLOUDS, LOW MIXING HEIGHTS, AND THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXED
WITH FOG FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST GA LOCATIONS INTO PORTIONS OF
INLAND NORTHEAST FL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 56 45 60 / 60 90 60 40
SSI 53 62 50 63 / 50 80 80 60
JAX 55 66 52 64 / 30 60 80 70
SGJ 60 71 56 69 / 20 40 70 80
GNV 60 73 56 69 / 20 50 70 80
OCF 63 76 58 72 / 20 50 70 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page