748
FXUS62 KJAX 051501
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1001 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST FL ON SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10. SEVERE WEATHER
NOT ANTICIPATED.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR INLAND AREAS.
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT AREA BEACHES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE FL/GA BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE, WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE (1029 MILLIBARS)
WAS CENTERED OVER COASTAL . ALOFT...DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, AS OUR AREA LIES
BETWEEN STOUT RIDGING OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TROUGHING THAT IS SITUATED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH WAS IGNITING ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OCMULGEE AND UPPER ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS
IN SOUTHEAST GA, WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF DOUGLAS, ALMA, AND JESUP. THESE LOCATIONS REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE "COOL SECTOR", WHERE TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS AT 15Z REMAIN STUCK IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. OTHERWISE, BREAKS IN THE MOSTLY MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD
COVER WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GA, IN THE "WARM SECTOR" OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S, WHILE
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RISING INTO THE 70S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL/GA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT / OVERRUNNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE ANOTHER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNSET FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY EASTWARD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHERE CAPE VALUES IN THE "WARM SECTOR"
WILL RISE TO THE 500-1,000 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
50 KNOTS COULD CREATE A BRIEFLY STRONG STORM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF I-10 BEFORE INSTABILITY WEAKENS EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND
GUST OF 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL CLOSE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA COAST.
TEMPERATURES IN THE "WARM SECTOR", OR FROM THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP
AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA SOUTHWARD WILL RISE TO THE 70S, WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10. HIGHS MAY REMAIN
STUCK IN THE 50S IN THE "COOL SECTOR" FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
OCMULGEE AND ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS, WITH 60S IN BETWEEN FOR THE
REST OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM'S FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SLIPS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL DOWNPOURS TO NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT / OVERRUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL
AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUD
COVER EXPANDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER
60S. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL OTHERWISE ALLOW LOWS TO FALL
TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A MESSY BUT BENEFICIAL RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP THIS
WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY EASE SOUTHWARDS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE WEST TO EAST IN THE PREVAILING WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE INTO CENTRAL FL BY
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BACKS IN RESPONSE TO MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT,
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT AFFECTING THE AREA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A COMPLEX
SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOTED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL AT THAT TIME.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL, EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH ZONES WHERE SOME MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
CHILLY FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA WITH HIGHS ABOUT 55 TO 60. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
AND THE HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN.
AS FAR AS WEATHER, HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN, CATEGORICAL ABOVE 75
PERCENT FOR SOUTHEAST GA ON SATURDAY, WITH THIS ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, LIKELY RAIN FOR JUST ABOVE ANY LOCATION
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR SUNDAY AS BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AVAILABLE AND
THERE IS SCANT BUOYANCY IN TANDEM. ANY THUNDER PROBABLY WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE
GRADUALLY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WE HAVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1-2 INCHES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3-4
INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT SHIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE FL PENINSULA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE
OHIO AND TN VALLEY AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO MID WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH SEEMS TO FORM BY TUE AND INTO EARLY WED KEEPING
THE COASTAL NORTHEAST FL BREEZY AT TIMES BUT NO RAIN IS
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT, WITH A WEAK DRY FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY BUT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MID WEEK
PERIOD AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE DRY FRONT
APPROACHES.
OVERALL, CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INLAND LIGHT FREEZE AND/OR FROST FOR SOUTHEAST
GA.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS AROUND SSI AT TIMES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
PREVAILING. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A PERIOD MVFR CIGS APPEARS PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FL AS WELL BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IMPROVING A BIT IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY THAT WILL BRING IFR TO THE TERMINALS BY THE
EVENING HOURS, FIRST AT SSI FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 22Z, DUVAL
TERMINALS BY 00Z-01Z, THEN GNV AND SGJ BY 03Z-06Z. LIFR LOOKS
PROBABLE AFTER 06Z WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY WITH SCATTERED RAINS
EXPECTED AS WELL. TSRA CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LASTLY, INCLUDED LLWS FOR
DUVAL TAFS AND SSI WITH THE JAX VWP SHOWING 30-35 KT AT 1-2 KFT
AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 12Z.
MARINE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE LATE THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AS RAINFALL ENDS,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON
NE FL MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON
FIRE WEATHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET FOR TODAY THROUGH AND THE WEEKEND.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST GA INTO
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST FL LATE SATURDAY INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE
ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
THE CLOUDS, LOW MIXING HEIGHTS, AND THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 56 45 60 / 60 90 60 40
SSI 52 62 50 63 / 50 80 80 60
JAX 53 66 52 64 / 30 60 80 70
SGJ 58 71 56 69 / 20 40 70 80
GNV 59 73 56 69 / 20 50 70 80
OCF 62 76 58 72 / 20 50 70 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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