955
FXUS62 KJAX 051747
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1247 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG I-10 THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL & BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
- PERIODS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL
ON SUN & SUN EVENING. ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
I-10. SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR INLAND AREAS.
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2,000 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 01Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE SSI TERMINAL
TOWARDS 21Z, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AT SSI
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. ACTIVITY WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z, WITH CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS FOR BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGH AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 02Z AT
SSI. PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z, WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 22Z AT THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS, WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS 00Z
AND SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE FL/GA BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE, WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE (1029 MILLIBARS) WAS
CENTERED OVER COASTAL . ALOFT...DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, AS OUR AREA LIES
BETWEEN STOUT RIDGING OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TROUGHING THAT IS SITUATED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH WAS IGNITING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE OCMULGEE AND UPPER ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST GA, WITH
MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF DOUGLAS, ALMA, AND
JESUP. THESE LOCATIONS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
"COOL SECTOR", WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 15Z REMAIN STUCK
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. OTHERWISE, BREAKS IN THE MOSTLY MID
AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST FL
AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA, IN THE "WARM SECTOR" OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S,
WHILE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RISING INTO THE 70S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL/GA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
/ OVERRUNNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE ANOTHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET FROM THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHERE
CAPE VALUES IN THE "WARM SECTOR" WILL RISE TO THE 500-1,000 J/KG
RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS COULD CREATE A BRIEFLY
STRONG STORM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-10 BEFORE
INSTABILITY WEAKENS EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING A
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND GUST OF 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THE WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL CLOSE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA COAST.
TEMPERATURES IN THE "WARM SECTOR", OR FROM THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP AND
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA SOUTHWARD WILL RISE TO THE 70S, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10. HIGHS MAY REMAIN STUCK IN THE
50S IN THE "COOL SECTOR" FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE OCMULGEE AND
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS, WITH 60S IN BETWEEN FOR THE REST OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA.
WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM'S FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SLIPS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL DOWNPOURS TO NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST
FL THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT / OVERRUNNING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER EXPANDS ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE LOWS WILL
ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 60S. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL OTHERWISE
ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A MESSY BUT BENEFICIAL RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP THIS
WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY EASE SOUTHWARDS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES RIDE WEST TO EAST IN THE PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
ALOFT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE INTO CENTRAL FL BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN RESPONSE TO
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT
AFFECTING THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOTED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AT THAT TIME.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL, EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH ZONES WHERE SOME MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
CHILLY FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA WITH HIGHS ABOUT 55 TO 60. LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND THE HIGH
CHANCES OF RAIN.
AS FAR AS WEATHER, HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN, CATEGORICAL ABOVE 75
PERCENT FOR SOUTHEAST GA ON SATURDAY, WITH THIS ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
LIKELY RAIN FOR JUST ABOVE ANY LOCATION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AS BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AVAILABLE AND THERE IS SCANT BUOYANCY IN TANDEM. ANY
THUNDER PROBABLY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS OFFSHORE GRADUALLY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
WE HAVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1-2 INCHES FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 INCHES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT SHIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FL PENINSULA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE OHIO AND TN
VALLEY AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO MID WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH
SEEMS TO FORM BY TUE AND INTO EARLY WED KEEPING THE COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL BREEZY AT TIMES BUT NO RAIN IS MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT, WITH A
WEAK DRY FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY BUT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE DRY FRONT APPROACHES.
OVERALL, CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INLAND LIGHT FREEZE AND/OR FROST FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
MARINE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THIS FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, CREATING STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON, LOW ON SATURDAY
NE FL MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON, LOW ON SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD, MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST TODAY
OVER SOUTHEAST GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST FL FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL, BUT
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER, RAIN COVERAGE, AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND LOW DAYTIME
DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 56 44 60 / 50 90 50 40
SSI 52 60 50 63 / 70 80 70 50
JAX 53 66 51 67 / 70 70 70 60
SGJ 59 70 56 69 / 40 30 70 70
GNV 59 72 55 70 / 50 40 70 70
OCF 62 75 58 73 / 40 30 70 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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