441
FXUS62 KJAX 051851
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG I-10 AND PORTIONS
OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. HAZARDS: STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING & SMALL HAIL
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH SAT NIGHT
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TSTORMS
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10. SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR INLAND AREAS.
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP IN SOUTHEAST GA
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE (1012 MILLIBARS) WAS TRAVERSING THIS FRONT NEAR THE
FL/GA BORDER. MEANWHILE, WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE (1028
MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...DEEP WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, AS
OUR AREA LIES BETWEEN STOUT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND BROAD TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND
AND SOUTHERN GA, WITH THE "WARM SECTOR" NOSING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP. ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING CONTINUES
IN THE "COOL SECTOR" FROM WAYCROSS NORTHWARD, WHERE TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL HAVE SOARED
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AS OF 19Z, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL/GA BORDER
AND OKEFENOKEE SWAMP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING, RESULTING IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE "WARM SECTOR", WITH A FEW
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
WAYCROSS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHERE CAPE
VALUES WILL RISE TO THE 500-1,000 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 50 KNOTS COULD CREATE A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10,
BEFORE INSTABILITY WEAKENS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CREATE LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEFLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
WEAKENING CONVECTION PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL WILL PROVIDE SOME BRIEF BUT
BENEFICIAL DOWNPOURS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT / OVERRUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE LIGHT RAINFALL
AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUD
COVER EXPANDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER
60S. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL OTHERWISE ALLOW LOWS TO FALL
TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ITS TIME DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE KEY TAKEAWAY BEING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MORE DETAIL FOR EACH PERIOD:
SATURDAY: MAJORITY OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER INTERIOR GA, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
WAYCROSS. HOWEVER, JUST A BIT OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST FL, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ABOUT SR-20. COOLER HIGH TEMPS WILL BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE AS THE
FRONT NUDGES SOUTH. EXPECTING MAINLY 50S OVER INTERIOR GA, 60S
SURROUNDING THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH OF ABOUT
SR-20.
SATURDAY NIGHT & SUNDAY: HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY NUDGE SOUTHWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS A TOUCH COOLER
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND 50S
OVER NORTHEAST FL. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
OVERALL ACROSS NORTHEAST FL WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S COMMON.
LESS OF A GRADIENT HEADING NORTHWARD INTO GA ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
THANKS TO LOWER RAINFALL COVERAGE: IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WILL BE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT: DRIER AIR BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTS
TO SLOWLY INTRUDE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, LIKELY ENTERING SOUTHEAST
GA COUNTIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT
I-10 SOUTHWARD IN NORTHEAST FL THOUGH MAINLY DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 OVER INTERIOR GA AND 50S OVER NORTHEAST FL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRYING TREND EXPECTED OVERALL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD, SETTLING OVER
SOUTH FL BY TUESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR GA AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THIS AREA, BUT OTHERWISE DRY FOR
MOST MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK, THOUGH A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL TRY TO FORM BY TUE AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, KEEPING
THE COASTAL NORTHEAST FL BREEZY AT TIMES THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH MAKES FURTHER PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A WEAK DRY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL TREND MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY REBOUNDING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2,000 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 01Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE SSI TERMINAL
TOWARDS 21Z, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AT SSI THROUGH AROUND
00Z. ACTIVITY WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z, WITH CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGH AROUND 04Z TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS
WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGIONAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 02Z AT SSI. PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z,
WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 22Z AT THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS, WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS 00Z AND SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THIS FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, CREATING STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SATURDAY
NE FL LOW SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD,
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVIEST TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST FL FOR LATE
SATURDAY INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS
WELL, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER, RAIN
COVERAGE, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 56 44 60 / 50 90 50 40
SSI 52 60 50 63 / 70 80 70 50
JAX 53 66 51 67 / 70 70 70 60
SGJ 59 70 56 69 / 40 30 70 70
GNV 59 72 55 70 / 50 40 70 70
OCF 62 75 58 73 / 40 30 70 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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