612
FXUS62 KJAX 061145
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
645 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND NE FL THIS EARLY
MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST FL THIS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY; ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10 (SEVERE STORMS ARE VERY UNLIKELY)
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY NEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH, WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS OVERLAPS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PWATS OF ABOUT 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY TODAY
WHILE THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAST FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. ONE OR MORE PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER NRN 2/3RDS OF
THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
AMOUNT OF LIFT TO PRODUCE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS ENHANCED REGION OF LIFT WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT BUT SLOWLY LOSES SOME STEAM AS IT HEADS
SOUTHWARD SO CHANCES COME DOWN BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 65-75 PERCENT FOR
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES OF THUNDER IS LOW AT
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOTED TO BE ABOUT 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES
OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA WITH LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND MID 60S TOWARD THE CENTRAL AREAS,
AND THEN LOWER 70S FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT NOT TOO
CHILLY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER /ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE RAIN ON AREA ROADS BUT ESPECIALLY THE AREAS
OF FOG THAT CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATER TONIGHT.
AREAS VISIBILITIES MAY BE BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES, WITH 1/4 MILE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS START THIS PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO IFR NEAR AND AFTER 16Z. WHILE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 16Z, THE MAIN BATCH OF MOISTURE (RAIN
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY) WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY
WITH OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITY AGAIN IN RAIN AND MIST,
GENERALLY MVFR. GIVEN SHAKY CONFIDENCE FOR A TEMPORARY PERIOD
(FEW HOURS) OF IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, CEILINGS WERE KEPT
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LOW MVFR AND IFR PERSISTING BEFORE THE
MAIN RAIN EVENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TOWARD IFR. TERMINAL WINDS MAINLY LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH TODAY UP TO ABOUT 6- 12 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN TRENDING MORE NORTHEAST AND DECREASING AFTER
SUNSET.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS LATE
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, CREATING STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW SUNDAY
NE FL MODERATE SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD, MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST FL
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER NO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER, RAIN COVERAGE, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW
MIXING HEIGHTS AND LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING RAIN
MIXED WITH FOG FOR THIS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 58 47 59 / 60 50 30 30
SSI 50 62 52 62 / 70 60 40 20
JAX 50 64 52 65 / 70 80 50 20
SGJ 55 69 57 68 / 70 80 70 20
GNV 54 68 56 70 / 70 90 70 20
OCF 58 72 59 70 / 60 80 80 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ023-030-
031-035-136-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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