933
FXUS62 KJAX 061800
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
100 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- BENEFICIAL RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS OF NE FL SOUTH OF
I-10.
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH, LAYING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA, THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE WELCOMED WET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MOIST MILD ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES
OVERNIGHT, UPPING RAIN CHANCES TO 70-90% LATE TONIGHT. STRONG
FORCING FROM THE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC FLOW ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
AND THE FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD LEAD
TO A WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WITH HEAVY DRIZZLE MIXED IN. WITH
THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT, THE HIGHER
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL WHERE 1-3" OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BUST THE
DROUGHT GIVEN THE DEFICIT BUT IT'S A TREND IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WITH THE WET WEATHER, GLOOMY OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SE GA
AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NE FL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL SUNDAY MORNING, WILL
SLOWLY LIFT INTO NE FL DURING THE DAY. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL YIELD A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
FL. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG, AND JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH A FEW LOCAL BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN, MAINLY IN
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE A COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY, WITH A WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO FRONTAL POSITION.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S AROUND ALMA, GA, TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S FOR OCALA AND SOUTH.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STRETCH WEST TO EAST, ROUGHLY ALONG THE GA/FL
LINE MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL LOCATION, LOWS WILL
RANGE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BELOW
NORMAL DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
GAINESVILLE, WHERE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A DRY NIGHT
EXPECTED. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH READINGS BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST OVER INLAND
SE GA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING,
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED AS THIS BOUNDARY GOES THROUGH, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
LIFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TOWARD MVFR AND TO VFR AT A FEW AREA
TERMINALS IN NE FL AS OF 18Z. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AND
OVERCAST CEILINGS FROM IFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH BANDS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. INCREASING POTENTIAL
THAT CEILINGS, THOUGH OVERCAST, WILL LIFT TOWARD MVFR AGAIN AND
MAYBE TO AROUND 3-4K FT UNTIL THE NEXT IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIFR LOW STRATUS WITH
HEAVY DRIZZLE AND RAIN THROUGH PREDAWN AND MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
UNLIKE TODAY, ANTICIPATE A THICK DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT SUNDAY VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL TREND FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA WATERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, CREATING STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW SUNDAY
NE FL MODERATE SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVIDE WET WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT, THEN BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER NE FL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST LIKELY OVER SE GA TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 56 46 59 / 50 50 40 20
SSI 50 61 50 62 / 70 70 50 20
JAX 50 64 51 65 / 70 80 60 20
SGJ 55 66 56 67 / 70 90 80 20
GNV 54 67 55 69 / 70 90 80 20
OCF 57 72 57 70 / 50 90 90 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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