224
FXUS62 KJAX 070625
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
125 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
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- PERIODS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
TSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10 TODAY
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE SOUTH PORTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A RAINY AND COOL DAY TODAY AS UPGLIDE/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS
NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST FL TO NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE LINE BY
AROUND 1-2 PM, THOUGH THE GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD. THE FRONT MOVING NORTH OCCURS AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND OFF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL HELP TRANSLATE THE WAVES OF LOW OF PRESSURE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND THEREBY THE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD. A WEAK
TROUGH MAY FORM NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THIS TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT
HIGH POPS ARE IN STORE WITH RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEEP LAYER
RH AT 90+ PERCENT, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET, AND MODERATELY STRONG UPGLIDE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL WHERE MLCAPE MAY REACH
300-600 J/KG. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT, BASED
OFF THE MOST RECENT HRRR, ACROSS MARION COUNTY, POSSIBLY FAR
SOUTH PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTY, AND ALSO NOTED IN THE LATEST
SPC OUTLOOK. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA AND ALL OF NORTHEAST FL. THE
MAIN BAND WILL SET UP NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR, EXPAND IN COVERAGE,
AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. THE RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD BREAK UP BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL WHERE
1-2.5" OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING
THIS TO BUST THE DROUGHT GIVEN THE DEFICIT, BUT IT'S A TREND IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WITH THE WET WEATHER, GLOOMY OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 50S OVER SOUTHEAST
GA, AROUND 60 FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND AROUND 70-75 DEG FOR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT DROP TO THE UPPER 40S FOR
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE 50S FOR NORTHEAST FL. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO COVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BRINGING COOL DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MAX TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA RANGING BETWEEN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S WITH WARMER TEMPS
OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND UPPER 40S FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH COOLER TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION
AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK TO BE
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY FRIDAY AND THEN DROP DOWN TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AREA, THROUGH THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST GA, IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OCCASIONALLY REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
THIS BAND THEN SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD A LITTLE FASTER BY EARLY TONIGHT,
DIMINISHING IN AREA AND INTENSITY AFTER 02Z/03Z. WE ANTICIPATE
IFR AND LIFR IN AND NEAR THE BAND OF RAIN AND IFR AND MVFR IN
THE RAINY PATTERN THROUGH 12Z. THERE WILL LIKELY BE IN UPTICK IN
THE RAIN INTENSITY AFTER 13Z-15Z TIME FRAME TODAY, EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING ALL THE TAF SITES. THUNDER PROBABILITIES, NOTABLY
ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT OVER NORTHEAST FL, REMAIN PRETTY LOW SO
PROBABLY WON'T INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT IF WE
DID, PROBABLY FOR GNV FIRST THEN DUVAL TAFS. STRONG INDICATIONS
OF WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT SUNRISE FOR ALL THE
TAFS, BUT WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME BETTER CIGS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AT TIMES. SFC WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE 4-8 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN TREND TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 12Z-15Z THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS LATE TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT (WITH ANY T-STORM CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST FL WATERS). LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN STRENGTHEN WITH BUILDING SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FROM AROUND MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND LOW TO
MODERATE FOR MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVIDE WET WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT, THEN BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ASSOCIATED
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER NE FL THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST LIKELY OVER SE GA TUESDAY
NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 46 57 34 53 / 40 30 0 0
SSI 51 60 42 54 / 50 20 0 0
JAX 52 64 41 60 / 60 10 0 0
SGJ 57 67 49 63 / 80 20 0 0
GNV 55 68 42 64 / 80 20 0 0
OCF 58 70 45 66 / 90 20 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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