209
FXUS62 KJAX 071501
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1001 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PERIODS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY & TONIGHT. ISOLATED
TSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10 TODAY. A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER
MARION, PUTNAM, AND FLAGLER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
UPDATE
A MESSY, DREARY DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA TODAY
AS ROUNDS OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND DRIZZLE PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE WEREN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE UPDATE.
LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS, DOES INDICATE CONTINUED ORGINIZATION
OF SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH AN UPPER IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. AS THE WEAK LOW SPINS UP, IT SHOULD RESULT
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND RESPONSE AND LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR
NORTH WILL THE FRONT LIFT... AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD MARION, PUTNAM, AND
FLAGLER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
TERMS OF THERMO INSTABILITY, A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES (LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER) ARE AT PLAY BUT IF INSTABILITY IS NULLED
THIS EFFECTIVELY WILL NEGATE THE IMPACTS OF AVAILABLE SHEAR.
STILL IT IS POSSIBLE TO THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DEVELOP THAT COULD DEVELOP AND TAP INTO THE DYNAMIC SHEAR
PROFILE.
OTHERWISE, AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL BE WET, DRIZZLE, OVERCAST
AND COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A RAINY AND COOL DAY TODAY AS UPGLIDE/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS NORTH
OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHEAST FL TO NEAR A
GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE LINE BY AROUND 18Z, WITH THE GFS SLOWER
AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A COUPLE
OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND OFF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSLATE THE WAVES OF LOW OF PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
THEREBY THE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD. A WEAK TROUGH MAY FORM NORTH OF
THE FRONT THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH THIS TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT
HIGH POPS ARE IN STORE WITH RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
DEEP LAYER RH AT 90+ PERCENT, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET, AND MODERATELY STRONG UPGLIDE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL WHERE
MUCAPE MAY REACH 400-700 J/KG. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT,
BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT HRRR, ACROSS MARION COUNTY, POSSIBLY FAR
SOUTH PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTY, AND ALSO NOTED IN THE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA AND ALL OF NORTHEAST FL. THE MAIN
BAND WILL SET UP NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR, EXPAND IN COVERAGE, AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. THE RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD BREAK UP BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL WHERE
1-3" OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
BUST THE DROUGHT GIVEN THE DEFICIT BUT IT'S A TREND IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION.
WITH THE WET WEATHER, GLOOMY OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 50S OVER SOUTHEAST
GA, AROUND 60 FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND AROUND 70-75 DEG FOR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT DROP TO THE UPPER 40S FOR
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE 50S FOR NORTHEAST FL. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT, PRIMARY DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
WITH OCCASIONS OF LIFR. THERE MAY SOME OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS FOR BRIEF PERIODS IN RAIN/SHOWERS DUE TO LOW LEVEL MIXING
BY MID TO LATE TODAY. THE RAIN AND SHOWER INTENSITY DOES
INCREASE STARTING AT ABOUT 15Z AND CONTINUES UNTIL ABOUT
23Z/00Z. THE PERSISTENT RAINS END AT SSI ABOUT 04Z MONDAY, AND
FOR NORTHEAST FL TAFS AROUND 05Z-07Z MONDAY. THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW FOR BRIEF THUNDER AT GNV FROM ABOUT 18Z - 22Z, AND DUE TO
THE LOW CHANCE WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. SFC WINDS WILL
TREND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE MAY SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AS SHOWERS TRANSLATE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GNV AND SGJ TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS LATE TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN STRENGTHEN WITH BUILDING SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW MONDAY
NE FL MODERATE MONDAY
FIRE WEATHER
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVIDE WET WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT, THEN BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL OVER NE FL THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST LIKELY
OVER SE GA TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 46 57 34 53 / 40 30 0 0
SSI 51 60 42 54 / 50 20 0 0
JAX 52 64 41 60 / 60 10 0 0
SGJ 57 67 49 63 / 80 20 0 0
GNV 55 68 42 64 / 80 20 0 0
OCF 58 70 45 66 / 90 20 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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