965
FXUS62 KJAX 080009
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
709 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PERIODS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED TSTORMS
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10 TODAY. A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER MARION,
PUTNAM, AND FLAGLER COUNTIES, WITH A. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
A MESSY, DREARY, AND WET DAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA AS A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS FIXED ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL FL. MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE A BIT MORE AS LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF,
WHICH IS ACTING TO LIFT THE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS FL
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CUMULATIVELY, THIS IS A
BENEFICIAL AND MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EVENT WHICH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 1-3" WILL HELP WITH THE RECENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
THAT SAID, AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD, THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS MARION, PUTNAM, AND
FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AMID FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR. THE QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
EFFECTIVELY TAP INTO THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LOW-
END ("MARGINAL") RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
FORECASTED LOW LEVEL HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 SUPPORT FOR MILDLY
ORGANIZED CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT, RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF AS DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE FUNNELS INTO THE REGION DELIVERING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. AS RAINFALL SHIFTS AWAY, PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE GIVEN THE MOIST
CONDITIONS FROM THE DAY AND HALF OF LIGHT RAINFALL. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND MID-50S
FOR NE FL TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT DUE SUBSIDENCE UNDER RIDGE AND DRIER
FLOW. SKIES WILL TREND CLEAR ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL HAVE A BROAD RANGE TO DUE TO LOCATION OF
TROUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR ALMA, GA, TO AROUND 70 AT
OCALA, FL. A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT, AS A ONSHORE FLOW ALONG NE FL COAST WILL KEEP READINGS MILDER
THERE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER SE GA,
TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE NE FL COAST. A LITTLE PATCHY FROST OVER
INLAND SE GA WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE WINDS DROP OFF. FOR TUESDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S OVER SE GA, TO THE MIDDLE 60S
SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE, FL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, AND COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL.
LOWS FROM KSSI TO KGNV, AND EAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND
SE GA, AND SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BELOW
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
IFR/LIFR STRATUS WITH PASSING STRATIFORM SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. SHOWERS END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BETWEEN 12-21Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT BEHIND
IT. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AND INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW MONDAY
NE FL MODERATE MONDAY
FIRE WEATHER
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS INLAND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NE FL TODAY. FROST WITH A LIGHT FREEZE INLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INLAND FREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 58 34 53 / 50 20 0 0
SSI 50 61 41 55 / 90 10 0 0
JAX 51 65 41 59 / 90 10 0 0
SGJ 56 67 49 62 / 100 20 0 0
GNV 55 68 42 64 / 100 10 0 0
OCF 58 70 44 65 / 100 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ452-454-470-472-474.
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