987
FXUS62 KJAX 080624
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
124 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
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- AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH LOCAL VISIBILITY
BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES.
- PATCHY FROST INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TUESDAY MORNING, AND LIGHT
FREEZE WITH WIDESPREAD FROST INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHAPING UP TO BE A BETTER DAY TODAY THAN ON SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.
AS THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
TO NORTH CENTRAL FL SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY TO THE NORTH GULF PIVOTS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST, THE RAIN SHIELD OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND BE OFF THE NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA BY ABOUT 3 AM MONDAY.
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE OCCASIONALLY BE LESS
THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GA. A POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE WEAK, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
(MAINLY INLAND ZONES) THROUGH THE MID-DAY HOURS, BUT THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ALL BUT GONE BY 1-2 PM AS DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN ON
NORTHWEST WINDS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT
PEEKS OF SUN ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTN.
WITH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SOUTHEAST GA. AND LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR NORTHEAST FL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF ABOUT 5-12 MPH
EXPECTED TODAY AND DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WHERE WE HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED.
FOR REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL RISE FROM OUT MID TO UPPER 50S UP INTO THE MID 60S AND HIGH
TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL RISE FROM OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID
60S UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL SIMILARLY INCREASE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S RISING TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FROST
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH FROST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING DOWN FROM
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRY AND WEATHER AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
MOSTLY LIFR TO LOW-END IFR STRATUS WITH AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING
SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY 12Z FOR MOST AREAS,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
12Z TO 18Z. CIGS MAY GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO IFR BY 16Z-19Z, WITH
MVFR BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER,
SOME MIX OF IFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM 20Z THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY,
WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUGGESTING SOME AREAS OF IFR CIGS FROM
GNV TO JAX FROM 20Z-24Z. PREDOMINANT WINDS WILL BE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AROUND 6-12 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH OF THE BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH A STRENGTHENING LONGSHORE CURRENT ANTICIPATED.
HYDROLOGY
LOOKING AT RADAR AND SURFACE ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST ~36 HOURS,
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OCCURRED OVER THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWER AMOUNTS OCCURRED NORTH OF ALMA AND ALSO
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO OCALA FROM ABOUT 0.6 TO
1 INCH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NOON
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 35 53 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 40 54 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 40 58 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 48 61 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 41 63 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 43 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ452-454-470-472-474.
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