494
FXUS62 KJAX 081746
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1246 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FROST INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TONIGHT
- FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MORNING FROST
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IMPROVING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRIER ARE
FILTERS. THE GRADUALLY DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND ADVECT A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AND THE TIGHTER GRADIENT,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT AND KEEP
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PATCHY IN NATURE. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MUCH FASTER
WITH READING THE THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS NE FL AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FOR SE GA.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AT THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PRIOR TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS COULD BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RIGHT AT THE BEACHES WHILE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL FEEL A LIGHTER,
FRESH BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS
A DRY FRONT DIPS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL SPAN IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN IN SE GA,
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 60S. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. BY THE EVENING, CLEARING SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ALONG SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL, WHILE THE REST OF NE FL WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DIP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM, WIDESPREAD FROST WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP FOR MOST OF INLAND SE GA, WITH AREAS OF FROST AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL. A FREEZE WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS OF SE GA DURING THE EARLY
PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BRINGING IN WARMER AIR FROM OVER THE
GULF. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA SAVE FOR
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S. SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WON'T
BE AS CLEAR AS TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENT
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TREND OF BOTH FROPAS REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DID PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL
PATCHY FROST ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN SE GA AS
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR THE MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
TRENDING TO BE BELOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUOUS IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY, A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FEET ALONG
THE NE FL COAST WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TUESDAY
WITH FALLING RISK LEVEL WEDNESDAY AS SURF HEIGHTS LOWER.
MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE GA COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO POOR DISPERSIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION
IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. TUESDAY NIGHT, NEAR CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE FOR LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHILE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST FOR THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY REGION. DISPERSIONS IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTHWARD AND WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. GOOD
MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FROST OVER SE GA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT FREEZE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 34 53 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 40 54 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 39 58 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 47 61 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 41 63 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 43 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ452-454-470-
472-474.
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