878
FXUS62 KJAX 090105
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
805 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FROST INLAND SOUTHEAST GA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
- FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WED MORNING &
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
UPDATE
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
PERSISTED A LITTLE LONGER THIS LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS ARE
BECOMING SCATTERED 2.0-3.0 KFT ACROSS SE GA AS DEEPER NW FLOW
ARRIVES THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OVER
NORTHEAST FL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIFT SOME, BUT BROKEN LOW STRATUS
MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES INLAND NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO DROP LOWS INTO THE MID 30S
INLAND SE GA AND UPPER 30S OVER SUWANNEE VALLEY/I-10 WEST OF
JACKSONVILLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN 4-8 MPH INLAND AND LIMIT
FROST COVERAGE TO PATCHY WEST OF I-95 IN SE GA. LOWS WILL FALL TO
THE 40S OVER NORTHEAST FL TOWARDS THE COAST.
TUESDAY, BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED AT THE COAST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN BECOME SUNNY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE 8-15 BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG I-10
AND THE COAST WITH LOW 60S SOUTH OF I-10 AND MID 60S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL.
THE FREEZE WATCH CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR LOWS OF 30-32 DEGREES FOR INLAND SE GA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
IMPROVING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRIER ARE
FILTERS. THE GRADUALLY DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND ADVECT A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AND THE TIGHTER GRADIENT,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT AND KEEP
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PATCHY IN NATURE. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MUCH FASTER
WITH READING THE THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS NE FL AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FOR SE GA.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AT THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PRIOR TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS COULD BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RIGHT AT THE BEACHES WHILE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL FEEL A LIGHTER,
FRESH BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST THURSDAY, THEN OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD. WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL, WITH AN INLAND FROST OVER SE GA EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTEC TO BE MOVE THROUGH LARGELY DRY. WHILE
THE CHANCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN A LITTLE BELOW MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
WHILE LOW CEILINGS HOVERING BETWEEN IFR AND LOW END MVFR LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED STUBBORN TO LIFT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, A CHANGE IS COMING
AS DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO SCATTER OUT LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 03-06Z. HAVE TEMPO RESTRICTIONS FOR MVFR LEVEL
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08-12Z AS SCATTERED CLOUDS 2.0-2.5 KFT MAY BECOME
BROKEN AT TIMES AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS EXCEPT GNV WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AT SSI. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG
THE COAST OVERNIGHT 10-12 KNOTS AT SSI AND SGJ AND 6-10 KNOTS
INLAND.
VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z TO THE NORTHEAST FL TAF SITES
WHILE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT SSI THROUGH 18-19Z. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH NORTH WEST WILL BRING NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 10-12
KNOTS AT THE COAST WHILE WINDS REMAIN 6-10 KNOTS INLAND. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS MAY DRIFT ONSHORE AFTER 13Z, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. THE
HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TO THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AND SINK SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SEAS REMAINING IN
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE TUESDAY
NE FL HIGH TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO POOR DISPERSIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION
IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. TUESDAY NIGHT, NEAR CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE FOR LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHILE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST FOR THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY REGION. DISPERSIONS IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTHWARD AND WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. GOOD
MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FROST OVER SE GA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT FREEZE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 34 53 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 40 54 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 39 58 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 46 61 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 40 63 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 42 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ452-454-470-
472-474.
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