059
FXUS62 KJAX 230519
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1219 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG INLAND NE FL THIS MORNING
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR MUCH
OF THIS NIGHT, WHICH WILL YIELD CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES, MAINLY EAST OF I95. FURTHER INLAND RIDGING WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SUBSIDE ENOUGH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD BE ENOUGH WINDS
STIRRING TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ANY
FOG WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT, WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE INLAND CLOSER TO CENTER
OF HIGH.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL KEEP A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS "DRAINAGE" FLOW WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF MORNING FOG EACH MORNING.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE
FORECAST BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BENIGN AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT. ALOFT, AN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, DRAGGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH IT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH BOUTS OF MORNING FOG, MAINLY
INLAND. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS, FREEZING LOWS, AND A SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT COASTAL SITES
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG WILL BE INLAND, AFFECTING KVQQ AND KGNV. ANY FOG WHICH DOES
DEVELOP, WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING TODAY, GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GLANCE BY TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE TODAY, LOW WEDNESDAY
NE FL MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
..LOW DISPERSIONS FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY
WINDS WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BECOME SITUATED NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THROUGH CHRISTMAS. A STRONG AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
LATE THIS WEEKEND, PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
BRING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 70 54 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 77 52 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 75 55 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 80 52 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 79 52 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ470-
472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ474.
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