454
FXUS62 KJAX 241748
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1248 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG INLAND THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INLAND
- FREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. FOGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING INTO THURSDAY
WITH DENSER AREAS OF FOG MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID 50S ALONG
THE COASTLINE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AFTER A FOGGY START FOR MANY, ESPECIALLY INLAND CHRISTMAS
MORNING (GOOD THING SANTA HAS RUDOLPH TO GUIDE HIS SLEIGH!), SANTA
MAY ALSO NEED TO TAKE A BREAK FROM HIS BIG RED COAT ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, AS DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AMIDST A
PERSISTENT FAIR WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GULF COAST/NORTHERN GULF, PROVIDING JUST A LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5-10 MPH. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S COMMON, AND SOME TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE 80 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST,
WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW COMPARED TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING HELPS TO
ADVECT A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
COMMON THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
GULF ON FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A MOSTLY WEAK FLOW THAT WILL BECOME MORE
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. A GLANCING BLOW FROM A COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST
WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER WITH IT, THOUGH NO RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THAT REASON, TEMPS MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER,
THOUGH STILL MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ONCE AGAIN. FOG IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE GULF ONCE AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY ANOTHER GLANCING "BLOW" FROM A COOL FRONT TO
OUR EAST ON SATURDAY, HAVING LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. THE
BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF
2025. THOUGH THERE IS WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO BE LIMITED ONCE
AGAIN WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT/DRY CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD LIGHT
FREEZE IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TREND LIGHTER/CALM, ENHANCING RADIATIVE
COOLING. ANTICIPATE FREEZE HEADLINES BY THE WEEKEND FOR THIS
INCOMING COLD BLAST.
TEMPERATURES START ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES FOR SITES DEVELOPING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAINLY AROUND 10Z-14Z,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR WITH THE SUNRISE.
MARINE
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW REST OF TODAY
NE FL MODERATE REST OF TODAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOSTLY SITUATED TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL YIELD A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR FAIR TO
GOOD DISPERSIONS INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, CLOSER TO THE
POOR RANGE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAKENING COOL
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY FEATURING CHANCES FOR RAIN/CONVECTION AS
WELL AS A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 52 76 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 54 72 55 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 52 78 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 54 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 52 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 51 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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