420
FXUS62 KJAX 242314
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
614 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NIGHTLY LOCALIZED DENSE FOG INLAND
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND FREEZES MONDAY &
TUESDAY NIGHTS
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MONDAY & TUESDAY. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED TO THE
WEST, WILL STRETCH ACROSS AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE
HIGH, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE
WEST EARLY IN THE NIGHT OVER INLAND AREAS, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF. THEREFORE, WILL FOCUS GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG, PARTICULARLY DENSE FOG, OVER INLAND AREAS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AFTER A FOGGY START FOR MANY, ESPECIALLY INLAND CHRISTMAS
MORNING (GOOD THING SANTA HAS RUDOLPH TO GUIDE HIS SLEIGH!), SANTA
MAY ALSO NEED TO TAKE A BREAK FROM HIS BIG RED COAT ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, AS DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AMIDST A
PERSISTENT FAIR WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GULF COAST/NORTHERN GULF, PROVIDING JUST A LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5-10 MPH. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S COMMON, AND SOME TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE 80 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST,
WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW COMPARED TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING HELPS TO
ADVECT A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
COMMON THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
GULF ON FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A MOSTLY WEAK FLOW THAT WILL BECOME MORE
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. A GLANCING BLOW FROM A COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST
WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER WITH IT, THOUGH NO RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THAT REASON, TEMPS MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER,
THOUGH STILL MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ONCE AGAIN. FOG IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE GULF ONCE AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY ANOTHER GLANCING "BLOW" FROM A COOL FRONT TO
OUR EAST ON SATURDAY, HAVING LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. THE
BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER MODIFIED ARTIC
AIRMASS INTO TEH AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF 2025. THOUGH
THERE IS WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO BE LIMITED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
ONGOING DROUGHT/DRY CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE MID
20S. A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TREND
LIGHTER/CALM, ENHANCING RADIATIVE COOLING. ANTICIPATE FREEZE
HEADLINES BY THE WEEKEND FOR THIS INCOMING COLD BLAST.
TEMPERATURES START ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
FOG IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
INLAND, DUE TO POSITION OF THE HIGH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF. ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS TONIGHT, SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE WEEK DUE TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW REST OF TODAY
NE FL MODERATE REST OF TODAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOSTLY SITUATED TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL YIELD A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR FAIR TO
GOOD DISPERSIONS INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, CLOSER TO THE
POOR RANGE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAKENING COOL
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY FEATURING CHANCES FOR RAIN/CONVECTION AS
WELL AS A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 52 76 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 54 72 55 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 52 78 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 54 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 52 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 51 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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