184
FXUS62 KJAX 250525
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1225 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NIGHTLY LOCALIZED DENSE FOG INLAND
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND FREEZES MONDAY &
TUESDAY NIGHTS
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MONDAY & TUESDAY. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED TO THE WEST,
WILL STRETCH ACROSS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE HIGH, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, AND MAY BECOME
DENSE OVER INLAND AREAS.
ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING, GIVING WAY TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMMON.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A
MORE PRONOUNCED FLOW FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF, LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG PRODUCTION. ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
TRANQUIL, WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACT TO SHIELD THE AREA FROM SIGNIFICANT
FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
ZIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE AND DIRECT A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY BUT THESE
CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH REVEALING SUNNY SKIES BY SATURDAY. THE LATE
DECEMBER WARMTH WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
PUSH TO THE UPPER 70S EACH DAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING 80 DEGREES BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
NEARING OR POSSIBLY REACHING DAILY RECORD VALUES.
THE MOSTLY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE AREA AND BRING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF FREEZING DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
SLOWING OF THE FRONT, NOW EXPECTED TO PASS MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SET UP
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE THE COLDEST NEXT WEEK WITH WIND CHILLS
POTENTIALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO
DETRACT FROM THE ALREADY SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT EXISTED IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES; LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
FOG IS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. EXPECT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG INLAND, DUE TO POSITION OF THE HIGH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE GULF. ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS, SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK DUE TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW REST OF TODAY
NE FL MODERATE REST OF TODAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOSTLY SITUATED TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL YIELD A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR FAIR TO
GOOD DISPERSIONS INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, CLOSER TO THE
POOR RANGE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAKENING COOL
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY FEATURING CHANCES FOR RAIN/CONVECTION AS
WELL AS A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 51 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 55 71 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 78 53 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 76 55 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 80 52 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 79 52 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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