835
FXUS62 KJAX 251757
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1257 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT AREAS:
INLAND COUNTIES INCLUDING I-75 CORRIDOR.
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND FREEZES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MONDAY & TUESDAY.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF ON POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
BY TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY PREVAILING FLOW OVER THE
REGION. FOGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING INTO FRIDAY WITH DENSER AREAS OF FOG
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S
OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FAIRLY STAGNANT AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP
LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF SLOWLY EASES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. MEAN LAYER FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS
WESTERLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MS VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY HELPING TO INCREASE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
OVERALL, MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS PERIOD BUT AGAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR LATE DECEMBER. WE PROBABLY
WON'T MEET RECORD HIGHS, BUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY
80 DEGREES ARE IN STORE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS ONLY IN
THE 50S EXPECTED.
WITH LIGHT WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SOURCE FROM THE GULF, THE ONE HAZARD OF CONCERN IS MORNING FOG,
WHICH MAY BE DENSE IN A NUMBER OF INLAND AREAS FRIDAY MORNING,
SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY ANY MEANS. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR DENSE
FOG WILL BE THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST INLAND GA COUNTIES
BUT ALL COUNTIES HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DUE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER
THE FL PENINSULA ON SUNDAY ENSURING A WARM AND DRY DAY AGAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ADVANCES TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MARCH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING AN ARCTIC BLAST TO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 OR IN THE
LOWER 80S NEARING OR POSSIBLY REACHING DAILY RECORD VALUES.
SOME RATHER WEAK CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
THE ZONES MONDAY, BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE TEMPS INTO
THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE
THE COLDEST NIGHTS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO 30
AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARD THE COAST. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND THEN
THICKNESSES RISE AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE MILD AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BUILDING
FROM OUT OF THE WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 06Z-07Z
AND CLEARING OUT BY AROUND 14Z, WITH MORE DENSE DEVELOPMENTS
OCCURRING OVER GNV AND VQQ.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK DUE TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY, LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOSTLY SITUATED TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL YIELD A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY FEATURING
CHANCES FOR RAIN. A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT, STARTING ON TUESDAY.
NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 53 75 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 55 73 56 73 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 54 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 55 78 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 53 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 53 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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